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[虚拟币交流]
随着古代鲸鱼的储备达到历史新高，预计比特币将更加稀缺（转）
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比特币最初旨在作为日常支付的电子现金，但如今已成为一种储备资产。在过去十年中，BTC 也发展出了强烈的“持有”（hodl）行为，导致多个“鲸鱼”钱包的出现，这些钱包无意出售或转移比特币。这些闲置的供应被添加到早期矿工钱包（包括中本聪的钱包）中。
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$ G# A4 w% i" J/ U: y# s$ C. Q中本聪是第一位拥有超过十年历史的钱包的大户。此后不久，早期矿工的供应量也加入了这一行列，并在2025年达到新的峰值。目前，平均有超过566个BTC进入古老供应类别，超过了每天新增的450个BTC。
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) v* \2 W* {4 ], m% G随着时间的推移，比特币供应量的峰值 17%，即约 350 万枚，目前被“远古巨鲸”长期持有，这些币可能不会再次进入流通领域。随着时间的推移，锁定在“远古巨鲸”手中的币只会越来越多。
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一些古老的钱包规模相对较小。目前，只有 93 个钱包的比特币余额超过 1 万，因为即使是巨鲸也试图将资产转移到多个地址。超过 200 万个钱包的比特币余额超过1,000 比特币.5 a& j2 m' S) c2 a: ?/ }" S
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比特币巨鲸展现出长期信念1 J% r p. W4 m: B: S: C; g- _
BTC 的古老供应中包含一些被认为丢失、被遗忘或因某种原因无法转移的币种。在极少数情况下，一个旧钱包会唤醒并转移或出售部分硬币。# i4 B; c9 `8 `7 g. d
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然而，出售比特币被视为放弃比特币的长期潜力，尤其是在企业买家争相购买日益减少的比特币供应并将其锁定在国库券中的时候。
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- H+ I' e2 h0 R3 V8 E, ~5 c4 Q比特币国库券虽然较新，但也持有超过 339 万 BTC，与上古时期的供应量持平。其他长期持有的钱包也推动了稀缺性，包括持有 7-10 年的钱包和持有 5 年以上的钱包。; ~( E' ~% i9 y2 l2 y/ o: T
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BTC 持仓的流入主要来自最早的钱包用户（创建时间不到三个月），以及近期牛市中获利的买家。一些“鲸鱼”钱包专门参与交易，但总体趋势是越来越多的比特币无法使用。$ [0 n2 b$ @# Q* E
6 o% [8 `% M' r2 i7 K比特币日交易量约为44万，接近12个月来的最低水平。目前，链上交易活动极其低迷，交易员们利用衍生品市场交易“纸面BTC”。6 ? e3 p1 i: K0 T9 L
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随着比特币新的来源和有意出售的卖家逐渐减少，预期的供应紧缩可能会开始影响市场。即使是散户也已经抛售了手中的比特币，过去一年中出现了大量以低得多的价格流出的比特币。交易所和场外交易平台也在减少其可用供应。
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未来几年，持币不动的比特币可能会继续扩张，因为即使只有 500 个比特币也足以成立一家财务公司。持有者可能永远不会出售比特币，而是通过各种形式的质押、储备或借贷来挖掘其价值。
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Cryptopolitan Academy：想在 2025 年实现财富增值吗？欢迎参加我们即将推出的网络课程，学习如何利用 DeFi 实现增值
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