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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。. |! |3 D- V8 W) z& z6 L! C
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3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。3 N# g1 L' Q( Q* k1 o
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比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续
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4 D4 y$ L: O3 Z: T2 s Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。 U& g$ @6 }4 d, y6 x- r) O( Y
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尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。' i& t- Q: N8 |, c+ }4 p! a
7 R% x8 Y/ Y" g6 d* Q6 D 市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。
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针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。! U, u; S8 b% x( ~
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知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，7 `3 g# ]$ Y; p+ w6 `4 c/ R
_9 O% K9 i; c2 p! p价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。7 a+ `+ {/ Q8 l$ P- ^" X' m# {
- J& S& z' z1 L$ g& y# D6 [- s* d “从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间
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框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”: e, E7 G* _* J9 }
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知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。
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- b! v/ b3 M5 b" N “$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在
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积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”. i* F1 s/ m, ]; _2 @1 I V
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早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。
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与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。$ p, J7 Z5 ^' @2 I$ m
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比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势* _& U8 L: G" ~) h
|/ N# M0 f6 H% n; H 当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。5 \2 m# a9 n2 U6 X9 J4 H* m& i; c* I
! w1 N: e% H$ k5 }6 D 监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。
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该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，
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