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[lastpost] => 2647144 比特币、以太坊面临23亿美元期权到期——之后会发生什么?(转) 1714742285 mattf
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随着比特币价格一路飙升,连曾经对其嗤之以鼻的“股神”巴菲特也开始重新审视这一加密货币领域的价值。
1 {9 k/ s! L! @1 z. X5 T* a/ a8 S( X4 V* f7 m
一、比特币减半:造就稀缺性的金融奇迹
& V. Q5 ^2 P$ @4 r
) U) n6 ?, |5 [0 I R- g$ o 比特币,这个诞生于2009年的去中心化数字货币,以其固定的2100万枚供应总量和周期性减半的挖矿奖励机制,
( p2 Y! W+ ?+ d4 B8 @9 k* S7 L$ T. r$ Q
创造了一种全新的价值存储方式。每当挖出的区块数量达到21万个时,比特币的挖矿奖励就会减半,这一设计旨在* t, m N: ]2 X( X1 ~" F
5 W) @6 K o" A% \
控制通胀率,保持比特币的稀缺性。
U8 C! N; b" F# |
6 }9 u8 E5 k3 ]4 k x$ n! \历史数据显示,每次减半后,比特币价格都迎来了惊人的涨幅。第一次减半后涨幅高达9553%,价格飙升至1175美5 f9 l0 m9 G; A# ]
& I9 R* E. Y5 Q& P元;第二次减半后涨幅达3055%,价格触及19800美元;第三次减半后涨幅为792%,价格攀升至67775美元。如今,0 S- D7 E3 B4 S1 m) U, _7 v
0 V, W% s. n) z1 z
随着第四次减半的临近,市场普遍预期比特币价格将再次迎来新的高峰。- [' N7 P& P' D5 r% n$ J ?
' U- ^+ \1 p9 [ 以此研判第四次减半事件,我认为比特币会在今年第四季来到本周期的最高点,价格有相当大的机率突破10万美0 |+ W4 n+ E$ L
& U% y" k0 ?& @5 m' y# f0 q
元以上,粗估明年初将会遇到价格下挫,然后再上涨创新高。
8 X- [) Z% {. _# I x& J# L: [3 U3 C- K* b2 E
二、巴菲特与加密货币:从抵制到接纳的转变
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巴菲特,这位投资界的传奇人物,曾多次在公开场合表达对比特币的不屑。然而,随着加密货币市场的日益壮大和
( T1 J, R. d% H8 f& k- \2 j
9 a( F0 t3 X4 O* u2 Z% j比特币价值的不断攀升,巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司开始间接涉足这一领域。% w+ K7 P6 L- \9 _9 ]
6 Z" q! ?0 g& r# J z, l/ b2 ?
今年2月,伯克希尔投资的巴西数字银行Nubank因涉足比特币业务,其股价开盘后涨幅惊人,这无疑给了巴菲特一个
4 x3 r( j% _3 \9 x" A
. w J- ] s7 h! s5 Y) R1 ]6 H重新审视加密货币的机会。6 l# J) X6 |# W& ^( X- K
* ?9 Y8 q, H( w i& h1 ]/ n9 ~尽管巴菲特本人可能仍然对比特币持保留意见,但他无法否认加密货币产业带来的巨大收益。$ ~. C# c$ J) [, y
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在伯克希尔的投资组合中,加密货币相关资产的收益已经超过了其他传统投资。这一转变不仅反映了加密货币市场的* j# ^: q7 f& k+ M. w4 O. X. z. G
3 N; l* H" Q0 @0 N巨大潜力,也彰显了比特币等数字资产在全球金融体系中日益重要的地位。
9 x: c P8 g3 D) f: l1 y
7 N2 [. \6 R, O2 L 三、比特币的未来:挑战与机遇并存8 A$ I3 m/ D! d% N
( u( Q1 i2 U" o3 |8 `, \" K随着比特币价格的持续上涨和市场认可度的不断提高,这一加密货币面临着更多的挑战和机遇。一方面,比特币的稀
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缺性和去中心化特性使其成为了一种理想的避险资产和价值存储工具,吸引了越来越多的投资者和机构关注。另一方- D) d9 g+ g9 W1 W [$ e
2 P" C; G, f2 M( z) n面,比特币市场的波动性和监管风险也不容忽视。0 u) g' Q8 c1 ?* d8 S4 b" t( k
* l/ V' u, [/ m* Q7 V展望未来,比特币能否继续保持其增长势头,并在全球金融体系中占据一席之地,仍有待观察。然而,无论结果如何,
: Z5 H; X$ x% _5 c
L7 p G. b- G5 F) J% I, `比特币作为一种创新的金融工具和价值符号,已经对全球金融市场产生了深远的影响。
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今年底美国将举行总统大选,不论是拜登连任或川普当选,确定的是美国政局会有更多不确定因素,越多的不确定因素,
7 ?# o( S$ j" C1 k1 m" X- n' I3 A8 s; f9 X2 K- m% g2 V1 h9 Y
会导致投资人将资金转往传统金融以外的投资标的。 W. J- G0 r( |/ |* W9 f' f
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