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. g) ~# @( ?; K+ m0 J9 U
加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为6 H+ w% B5 G5 i' }# o; U( U/ h8 H! M
DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，
$ k3 u2 A* U( K' ^, z# E( w; w衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。
8 C1 r* o' u4 @' B7 W$ f$ _一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
/ V N8 D, r* s- d, }; N" yBTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。
7 c8 e, L! q+ ^( R) E5 ?% l. |Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：3 X* G. \2 s8 n: Y. ?( A
2024年4月第四次减半! j3 t; g; Z- Z+ t$ `
机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF- ]! ^2 j5 T( U# E2 o5 J: q
可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)
4 ^( ?. `% ]( Z* _7 `5 n针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。* \; h$ V+ a1 @ |* U
二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务; I3 k; f0 x1 i5 i" y2 \6 B" Z
friend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。
& G" _/ ^5 S% n" S2 _; vPantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠
% F D, W4 r) i7 A" ?$ K' Q诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。1 U9 X- d* n( \" I
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁1 F; ], r' t! m$ a& r4 y: p
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统6 k0 n. y8 K+ ]. }, W' f" H' C
金融(TradFi)产品。$ q4 W! e% h7 O! [
如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨
. Q9 t( c) v# |+ L! x" q0 Q o链桥」的项目。
6 ]9 I7 ^+ ~: e: }- N% E四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉
. C4 X4 Q# @. J( e8 o模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
7 R( v" |+ m: D! @. W1 D等。
5 }/ Z0 q4 L; P5 m0 @* qPantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用3 C- g6 A; B% a. k
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。
- @" @( o3 L. Z; |五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN
, D+ P' G3 N+ [# H" _* \Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位4 M6 o0 X5 \% p( ~! L: e
数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。
+ ]7 c2 O( e5 j4 U3 i" T4 Y" X0 NPantera点名了几个项目：
& h* e" `" Q/ a+ m! VHivemapper：去中心化的Google地图
7 r+ O5 I3 L C% `( x+ \; oBittensor：去中心化机器学习平台
( `2 E/ s+ P" B. IModulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品
" W! j4 G$ ?8 D$ WThe Graph：链上知识图谱计划+ u, a- Z. e$ N7 N! _7 y& `
Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游
/ r" \2 r( m7 q六、小型公链需专注特定应用
3 l2 y; E; J3 L( F, c/ Q% p9 pPantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚5 }! y5 L: w4 {8 Y0 M; a( N
至能直接与L2竞争。
3 v0 l* |$ v5 U) p也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。6 E) }" d: l6 d* O/ r# L. d, U
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地& l% S* w4 ^- A( r% f# P/ `
成为「应用链」。/ r* {: C9 |$ r! P
事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。) {" L7 L- ?9 \, t
6 A9 {& S U# c- f
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