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比特币最近甚至大幅跑赢了自10月底以来一直走高的道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500指数。
2 A9 W/ U2 [# v
. ? F3 Z/ g- [' k- Q9 c( {监管机构有望很快批准首只现货比特币交易所交易基金(ETF)是比特币上涨背后的主要推动力，6 W; D0 z# p. _8 \: t
8 `2 ?- _% F. l6 ^: c: Y
专家预测，这将引发投资者对数字资产的新一轮兴趣。 , }# A9 y5 i! ~% o% d
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有关美联储明年将多次降息的预期升温也给比特币带来提振，利率下降通常利好比特币和科技/ L2 M! }7 g. E' ^( Q8 \8 y# x
5 c* C' D. S4 h9 V
股等风险较高的投资。
: Z6 t' ~0 l6 G; S/ @. c1 a
0 l* V h- v% x3 w2 Q芝加哥商品交易所(CME)的美联储观察(FedWatch)工具显示，联邦基金期货交易员预计，美联储9 d; {% U, \: O8 v1 k1 i
# o" [; M9 |' p [明年3月降息25个基点的概率超过50%，高于一周前的21.5%。 0 V$ F% `+ j! H2 y
; A& l2 E' z, K# A! h! T. @现在的问题是，比特币接下来会怎么走？除了供应和需求之外，比特别几乎没有什么基本面驱动
3 E3 [9 L5 y1 r) O( q8 f4 v
7 }" `0 R, j8 Q U. c因素，但分析人士认为，比特币还有更大的上涨空间。 , C0 u! O. R ^. a m; B
$ ^, v+ p# c7 M7 Y. F! O从技术面来看，比特币在过去被证明波动非常大的一个区间内拥有上涨动能。 7 m6 f, N+ M( l* j: G
/ ]5 e6 v3 L# _更广泛地来看，虽然比特币有进入超买区域的风险，但交易数据显示，交易量仍然相对低迷，因此
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2 z2 O( d4 `; k7 {$ ^9 R仍有许多交易商可能买入。 / W3 l! w+ q' |) {
& b$ ?# n! p/ \9 _: {( Q库普齐克维奇说：“越来越多的投资者会因为‘害怕错过’(FOMO)而买入。”FOMO是加密货币最强大的- e, u/ }$ b1 L
- K5 g4 F, U1 Z% O推动力之一。
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02
$ E! Y# c% A: d. y) D8 N
z4 a2 U9 @# v有证据显示，许多散户和机构交易员仍在离场观望，近期的上涨可能会吸引更多人买入。
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& ]# i _& F9 \% a8 G/ e/ x需求增加的同时，比特币供应紧张——许多长期持有者不愿卖出，价格可能还会走高。
/ |+ W: ^ m# i6 B) ?1 F$ y
2 v+ R, a! W9 J2 d+ t/ V+ W( \+ w加密金融服务公司Galaxy Digital的研究主管亚历克斯·索恩(Alex Thorn)说：“这次反弹让很多感兴趣
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的人离场观望，他们可能会随后参与进来。虽然最近已经大幅上涨，但比特币仍有继续上涨的空间。” * o+ f0 ]9 }1 {
# A& Q* T9 a0 O! B/ z1 w. ?数字资产基金ProChain Capital总裁兼联合创始人大卫·塔威尔(David Tawil)预计，比特币将持续反弹至% n+ {: V6 k/ i# R& K& P* |3 {
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今年年底，比特币ETF获批时，价格达到4.7万美元的高位。 0 a$ K' N& z N+ W1 i1 r
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