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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
+ B! j3 O' ]* K. u" b6 h* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c
0 [, o( l0 Y3 S0 k凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k4 B* N5 S3 \( A a
, I5 \9 @* Z* [" H3 mG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
9 }6 t2 n. m) [什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
t5 ]& P2 L( ~% ~
9 J( |2 Y- V- l! S/ @, h3 v3 O) d& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h" Z/ P6 ~7 ^* e2 c; C+ V- E
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
) Y0 ?. m: G* _ U, x: W& P. Y7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
% R; d9 b0 w1 }8 w: n3 `% W& X& h做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
% Y5 K$ o4 n/ y: F d; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d" T% C6 r1 O! |7 z
(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n! V$ T- N2 g& Q$ T0 M
" j% g0 E8 d$ i, l. t$ y0 B8 H(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
- r+ f/ Y1 l8 h/ d8 r0 u0 o$ }3 ]- X; T
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
& M0 W7 J8 R( H0 i
2 T. P! F4 C- r(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 4 L0 V, J {5 w2 [9 [0 k
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
& i* {: [9 i" F2 O# u) H我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 # m& [7 O4 ~: h) `
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c9 _ z9 t1 n/ d3 P
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 " a/ S0 e6 n2 f6 A" m: h* N, d, _4 `
d7 h5 B# ~0 V, O; M- {" e
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
$ B* e2 n, A- f6 v) [% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
( M# z! e, c" R* mS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
( e# ~( p' O, f0 R9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j- k# c* n- K) a; a: {$ w1 V: O9 s
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \& D' \7 U9 j, B: ?1 z
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
. o) n3 ^' `/ t1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
! z, G4 T8 t2 m8 h' @- M
3 T. M' z( g5 i0 M! U1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l' S; X% ?8 D6 J W* s- x4 j
* _9 o6 {! k* \5 {- Y5 q1 a9 A! i& s
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q) v3 B# r! D1 O9 T" t% ^6 x+ X
5 O. A n* M2 o6 b* s+ c2 P
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 ) s5 T, t7 k& {0 }7 W
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
) A: B3 l4 f0 eS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
2 ^) g- X3 o, l L& I2 c6 U2 N5 K# H3 u2 j
类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
( U& m1 W, p8 e0 M q- a2 ~
2 a: _8 [+ U3 e& `5 yS1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
& T' o) ?1 r5 v! f2 e1 \5 t( G/ q* z3 u2 s4 P
S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s g" b# n& b. l+ }: x
; m' V% T, u, P% O( t$ Z7 p: B9 Q6 Z8 m
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 3 [' |2 M8 |9 ]% j9 W0 [. M7 L# q
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a* o7 T$ [; x: c0 h9 [! J& y: D
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 ! V J' s3 s7 ^: q9 v6 {8 j
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~3 C* U/ {# K$ T- K' \3 P
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
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好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 - o8 ?8 {8 ] l# y0 s/ O
) q( ], k9 L T& t
$ @/ S! v% q' b; J# I% F- vB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 ! O o8 V: Z* K/ I* f" O
0 m( j W5 b9 D9 ?
F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 2 U) w" s: H& }4 J( U. b
' J) j5 u1 n( l8 u. Y于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?% D& B+ q. q, X% H
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {; Q3 q0 w( I% K+ D
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M* A3 T! s/ \* J ?2 o' n$ s
+ D$ n) P# X# M' C N% {$ ^9 H1 v: x
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 + M2 T. C3 B: R3 x5 @
8 N# z# }/ X- m& i- t# P- Z2 O
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
a$ J' z* j' i2 U& N; M
- ^* ~3 Z0 P2 `' J7 d当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
; T1 n- Z5 y. b6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
6 o: g1 b' U# ]" R q1 N通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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