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观点：霍尔木兹油阀关停为特朗普埋下政治炸弹，日韩结构性脆弱暴露无遗
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比推消息，BTC OG 内幕巨鲸代理人 Garrett Jin 发长文分析霍尔木兹海峡持续封闭将为全球带来何种影响，其指出欧洲、美国、日韩、印度等承受能力各不相同，危机将在石油短缺达到阈值后爆发。
日本是全球结构性暴露最严重的主要经济体，其约 95% 的石油来自中东，其中约 70% 直接通过霍尔木兹海峡运输。日本的战略石油储备名义上供应量为 254 天，但日本的液化天然气（LNG）仅供约三周，而 LNG 占据日本电网 40% 的发电能源敞口。
韩国的境遇与日本几乎相同，70.7% 的石油和 20.4% 的液化天然气来自中东，石油和天然气合计约占电网发电量的 35%。韩国股指 KOSPI 近期已下跌超 12% 并一度触发交易暂停。总统李在明宣布实施燃油价格上限，这是自亚洲金融危机以来的首次。电网不稳可能威胁三星和 SK 海力士半导体晶圆厂的产能与良率，进而威胁全球人工智能基础设施。
美国的实际脆弱性是政治上的，而非物理上的。霍尔木兹石油通量仅有约 2.5% 运往美国，但中期选举将至，油价是美国选民最清晰的经济信号。特朗普一面发动对伊朗的军事行动，一面公开承诺降低油价，在霍尔木兹关闭、海湾阿拉伯石油产量六成以上停产的情况下，这一承诺在物理上不可能实现的。矛盾无法无限期地持续下去，未来特朗普要么面临对伊军事运动的政治支持减少，要么丧失在经济管理上的公信力。
据 Bitget 行情数据，今早布伦特原油期货价格连续第二个交易日收于每桶 100 美元以上，创下三年多来的最高水平。美国原油期货收于每桶 99 美元附近，为 2022 年 7 月以来的最高水平。
据 PolyBeats 监测，目前在预测市场 Polymarket 上，芝商所 WTI 原油期货Crude Oil (CL)在 3 月内收盘价突破 100 美元的概率已升至 92%，收盘价突破 120 美元的概率已升至 52%。
风险提示： 本新闻涉及的内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。依据发布的信息以及所表达的意见行事所造成的一切后果由行事者自负。文章链接 |
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