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近日中东局势紧张，避险情绪升温，收市前金、银、油价格已齐齐走高。
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3 m) ]: f/ k/ F; \1 T2月28日，美国开始在伊朗实施重大作战行动。# R; c. |3 K3 C4 s6 B8 v
1 B, j. N% g9 J3 s* L3 \消息传出后，加密货币大幅跳水，比特币直线暴跌，一度跌破63500美元，主流币种集体跳水。
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避险资产黄金、白银及原油则在上周五周末休市前已强势走高，市场普遍预期下周开盘后，大宗商品市场将出现剧烈波动。
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2月27日收市前，国际金、银、油价格已齐齐走高。其中伦敦收报每盎司5278美元，盘中最高触及每盎司5281美元；一度突破94美元。! y2 T' V9 j* B3 C9 ^
( u( @1 N9 C, O5 j& G4 d3 r' F原油市场同样反应激烈。由于中东局势急转直下，市场担忧原油供应面临直接威胁，截至当天收盘，美国价格收于每桶67.02美元，涨幅为2.78%；伦敦价格收于每桶72.48美元，涨幅为2.45%。地缘风险溢价已迅速计入油价。7 `4 _4 D) U7 R
& u6 I% r; ^ J6 }# Q8 G$ V: g+ }% p$ c随着周末休市，交易员们虽暂时离场，但对下周开盘后的行情预判却未停止。一位交易人士对记者称，本次中东冲突的烈度与持续性，将成为左右下周金融市场的核心变量。目前市场普遍预期，下周国际与油价可能出现较大波动。
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+ P- J2 u: |! b9 A6 j9 D“对于黄金而言，若冲突持续升级，避险资金将进一步涌入，金价有望挑战新高，”上述交易人士进一步分析称，但局势不确定性大，也需警惕获利盘了结带来的回调压力。
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' C- k6 b' j2 g' Q+ Z对于原油，情况更为复杂。当前油价上涨的核心驱动是地缘冲突预期带来的风险溢价。地处霍尔木兹海峡承担着全球约20%的原油海运贸易，目前市场对其航运安全十分敏感，甚至不需要实际的供应中断，就会推高油价。
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北京师范大学教授万喆表示，当前全球原油市场的基本面是供应过剩的，油价上涨已完全脱离了供需的基本面，如果局势发生缓和，价格也有可能会快速回调。
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