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本帖最后由 caoch 于 2026-2-6 00:28 编辑 . |0 C' ~; f0 d/ N( _, L
9 D. |5 q" d/ F( ^; D: a比特币跌破 72000 美元关口（比特币最新已跌破 71000 美元），把加密市场的「信仰」问题推到台前。在全球风险偏好骤降的背景下，投资者正重新评估比特币在市场动荡中的定位，加密资产的避险叙事遭遇拷问。* N1 F3 f7 S( Z. q! w$ a
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据彭博，比特币周三在纽约尾盘一度跌至 71739 美元，为约 15 个月来首次跌破 72000 美元。相较去年 10 月的峰值，比特币累计回撤已超过 42%，年内跌幅约 17%，价格滑落至 2024 年 11 月 6 日以来最低水平。
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$ c: t- V2 G; o" r本轮下跌不再仅是加密市场内部去杠杆的延续，而是更广泛的跨资产压力所致。周三全球市场出现同步抛售，纳斯达克 100 指数下跌超过 2%，软件、芯片等对利率更敏感的板块普遍承压，比特币随之走弱。
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7 u$ k! \+ F4 U' v情绪层面，「信仰危机」正在形成。Monarq Asset Management 管理合伙人 Shiliang Tang 称，市场正在经历一场「crisis of faith」。$ Q% B9 j' j) K
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Efficient Frontier 业务发展负责人 Andrew Tu 则表示，加密市场情绪已处于「极度恐惧」，若 72000 美元失守，比特币可能下探至 68000 美元，甚至回落至 2024 年初次反弹前的低位区间。
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据 Polymarket，比特币今年有 83% 的概率跌至 65000 美元，而跌破 55,000 美元的概率已攀升至约 59%。# p) J: o& T0 \' g) S1 }
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风险偏好急转，比特币被当作「高波动风险资产」
& E9 w6 n8 v" ?3 |8 M; ?据彭博，周三对比特币的抛压与更广泛的跨资产紧张局势相关，而不是单一由加密资产内部清算驱动。这一点对投资者意义明确，在市场进入同步卖出阶段时，比特币并未表现出独立于风险资产的韧性，反而更像高波动的长尾风险资产。/ K# h- O& B. ]- H1 E1 v
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纳斯达克 100 指数当日跌幅超过 2%，拖累扩散至软件、芯片等板块。比特币在同一交易日跌破关键整数位，强化了其与风险偏好共振的市场认知。
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, \( q' ]- R; t2 F& A从峰值回撤 42%，加密市场一周蒸发超 4600 亿美元
- d: a6 H1 p% ] v! t* @价格回撤正在通过市值收缩快速传导。据 CoinGecko 数据，加密资产自去年 10 月峰值以来市值合计缩水约 1.7 万亿美元。仅过去一周，加密市场市值就减少超过 4600 亿美元。
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比特币作为最大加密货币，其下跌幅度和速度对市场情绪具有「锚定效应」。当比特币年内跌幅扩大至约 17% 时，风险控制、保证金管理与资金赎回压力往往会同时上升，进而加剧整体波动。! P3 s- z, Q- V% e' `6 ~) c8 }
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「信仰危机」如何出现：从强平冲击转向情绪溃散
, J" D3 A9 @% W3 I8 F( R( g市场参与者的表述显示，情绪变化正在成为核心变量。Shiliang Tang 所称的「crisis of faith」，指向的是投资者对加密资产中长期叙事与短期定价机制的同步动摇。: {6 B- F, Z5 C7 {6 T& B
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更关键的是下跌驱动的变化。据彭博，此前下跌阶段更多由加密资产特有的清算推动，而周三压力则来自更广泛的跨市场紧张。$ X) l3 l* [4 [5 V9 T
2 p9 W- m F& N7 }1 Q6 U3 @这意味着，即便加密市场内部杠杆出清告一段落，只要外部风险资产继续承压，比特币仍可能缺乏独立反弹的催化。
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72000 成短期分水岭，预测市场押注年内跌至 65000. a6 }- t( R( q* c; m
多位交易端人士把 72000 美元视为短期关键价位。Andrew Tu 指出，若该水平无法守住，比特币「很可能」下探至 68000 美元，并可能回到 2024 年初次反弹前的低位区间。
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5 V, c5 O/ y3 p, R* {+ Y, t, p据 Polymarket，比特币今年有 83% 的概率跌至 65000 美元，而跌破 55000 美元的概率已攀升至约 59%。( D3 Y/ a/ ~$ E: t- ?( e9 P
2 }! e o1 X1 g9 e# K. Y! H资金面同样释放出摇摆信号。据彭博汇编数据，美国上市比特币现货 ETF 周一录得约 5.62 亿美元净流入，但周二随即转为净流出 2.72 亿美元，显示增量资金并不稳定。* J) o" h4 G2 L! l
& s% r# X4 T" r/ u9 b在价格下行与资金流反复之下，市场对比特币「压力期避险资产」角色的怀疑正在上升。, V4 o6 B5 W9 s: E9 ]* r
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这波跌得都开始怀疑自己是不是被套了，信仰真经不起考验啊 |
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