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[lastpost] => 2788753 比特币在FOMC会议后下跌，此举为新的政策基调定下基调。（转） 1765464486 人生如赌
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币在FOMC会议后下跌，此举为新的政策基调定下基调。（转）
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美联储降息25个基点并推出新的国债购买计划，开启了美国货币政策的新阶段。比特币已对此做出反应，在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议后再次下跌，交易员们正在权衡宽松的利率立场与美联储对通胀的谨慎态度。3 z5 C; {' ?: K, J! H
2 P! l4 p) z% J美联储通过购买国库券发出流动性新阶段的信号' w6 G9 F: S- e2 W8 S- N
美联储在12月会议上降息25个基点，并确认已于12月1日结束量化紧缩政策。官员们还表示，美联储将于12月12日开始每月购买约400亿美元的国库券。他们称此举为储备管理措施，而非重返量化宽松。此次购买将主要集中于短期国库券，并将维持在较高水平数月之久。4 K! C+ X6 K8 k5 s* Q
9 ^, B4 N, r4 r% U7 z& @# D主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔说他指出，目前的政策大致处于中性区间，并表示不再考虑再次加息。他还补充说，未来的任何举措都取决于即将公布的数据，因此暂停加息或再次降息的可能性依然存在。鲍威尔他还指出劳动力市场正在降温，但他并未称其疲软，而是表示招聘速度已经放缓，而职位空缺数量持续下降。
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9 K; F0 M; h. v6 {美联储的预测显示，2026年的经济增长预期更为强劲。鲍威尔表示，随着供需趋于平衡，即使通胀率仍高于目标水平，经济前景也随之改善。美联储强调，新的国库券操作旨在维持市场平稳运行，而非重启大规模资产购买计划。
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% r1 u" A; r. l- x" Q3 a a0 A市场解读政策转变是谨慎而非量化宽松。! D' h- O+ h0 u$ H# G- \# O
交易员反应美联储在宣布此次流动性调整时，着重强调了其时机。量化紧缩（QT）于12月1日结束，而短期国债购买计划在不到两周后启动，这将在年底融资压力较大的时期向市场注入新的储备。然而，美联储明确区分了短期国债购买计划和其在过去经济衰退期间使用的大规模购债计划。. ?% l) E* i J* Q$ Y1 H. C/ N! \
1 o7 N3 t- M" D0 S/ o分析师还指出，鲍威尔曾表示经济可能在2026年加速增长。这一观点提升了市场对制造业指标（例如ISM指数）明年可能突破50点扩张门槛的预期。市场参与者通常将这一门槛与风险偏好增强联系起来，尽管美联储并未提及任何针对特定市场的信号。2 S0 ?$ [) R7 @( I8 g& q- h
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尽管如此，鲍威尔重申通胀依然顽固，在数据显示出持续进展之前，政策应保持紧缩。他表示，新的流动性操作并不意味着政策将进一步放松，此前已实施了25个基点的宽松政策。因此，此次会议的基调介于谨慎和鹰派之间，央行强调政策稳定，而非启动新一轮刺激。
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美联储最新公开市场委员会决议后，比特币再次下跌5 l# ^* {: `$ J' a( y' h- q7 |
在美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议之后，比特币再次回调，延续了此前持续到2025年的回调趋势。CryptoGoos图表用黄线追踪了每次会议的日期，显示过去七次会议中有六次之后都出现了下跌，跌幅从个位数到接近30%不等。周三的利率决议公布后，比特币在9万美元附近的最新K线群再次下行。
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8 ?& F( Y t" D, N6 |比特币在FOMC会议后的下跌趋势（2025年）。来源：CryptoGoos on X
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6 N5 k3 {* w$ t此次，美联储降息25个基点，于12月1日结束量化紧缩政策，并确认将购买新的国债以管理流动性。尽管这些措施增加了系统储备，但政策基调依然谨慎，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔称其立场大致中性，并暗示不会开启新一轮加息。市场似乎认为，这种政策组合短期内对风险资产的支撑作用有限。
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因此，比特币交易清淡，交易员们正密切关注美联储会议后的常见下跌是否会完全重现，还是会比以往更快消退。图表中的绿色箭头标示了当前区域，表明价格仍高于10月份的低点，但低于近期的阻力位。目前，美联储的决策仍然是比特币图表上一个明显的催化剂，每次会议后都会在接下来的几天引发剧烈波动。
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