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[虚拟币交流]
Polymarket推出预测业绩玩法 以是否达到指定每股收益为标准-转
[复制链接]
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天策币:
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总在线: 565 小时
本月在线: 4 小时
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美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）近期给予 Polymarket有限豁免，这家估值接近 100 亿美元的平台正尝试把上市公司财报是否超出市场预测设计成全新的预测标的。 与直接押注股价不同，投资者交易的对象是具体、可验证的结果，例如”某公司下季度营收能否突破xx亿美元“。这种设计让用户能够避开触碰证券价格预测的法律风险。 1 \4 J% y% D% _! B' F1 ~4 h6 r
, e9 Z: i2 F) F8 i: i1 U) ~财报预测市场的模式根据 Polymarket 发布的演示影片，用户将可押注企业财报公布的盈利或营收数据是否高于分析师或市场的普遍预估。 举例 - 市场预期：苹果本季每股收益（EPS）= 1.20 美元
- 实际公布：EPS = 1.35 美元 → 超出预期; M- u1 B5 t& b% @% L \7 Z
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本周有四家公司业绩可参与3 C' o# L' z9 U
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根据Polymarket的官方网页，这种新模式的预测目前已上线，且都是以EPS为预测目标，不排除未来会加入更多数据。 而本周比较多人熟悉的公司必定是FedEx（NYSE：FDX），该公司将于2025年9月18日美国东部时间下午5:30举行2026财年第一季度财报电话会议。目前尚未公布具体的财务数据。根据之前的预测，分析师预计该季度每股收益（EPS）约为3.70美元，营收在216亿美元至220亿美元之间。
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