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尽管机构资金持续流入，但比特币近期走势却显疲软，背后的关键原因在于长期持有者的获利了结行为压制了价格上涨动力。近几周，比特币价格陷入滞涨格局，令不少投资者感到困惑。尽管ETF和上市公司持续增持，据估计累计购入约20万枚BTC，使机构总持仓量逼近100万枚大关，比特币却未能延续强势。在创下12万美元以上的历史高点后，其价格回落至10.8万美元水平并进入横盘整理。( B' b. b- K" G4 R" B
为什么巨量机构买盘未能推高币价？- l3 g7 U+ a: G6 u+ |' j2 Q7 H e- w
链上数据揭示，长期持有者正在大规模获利了结。自七月以来，已有超过45万枚BTC从长期钱包转移至短期交易者手中。这类抛售行为在很大程度上抵消了机构资金流入带来的看涨效应。# [6 T, D* p9 d4 P) {
具体来看，持币时长在四至十年的群体成为抛压主力。他们早在低位建仓，在本轮价格创新高过程中逐步实现盈利。这一行为符合历史规律：长期持有者往往在市场狂热阶段减仓，待市场冷却后再度积累。目前数据表明，这一群体的卖出动力仍在加强，进一步加剧了比特币的盘整格局。% K' D$ ?0 B( \* q9 H h
除现货市场外，衍生品活动也对价格形成压制。自七月以来，全交易所的衍生品未平仓合约增加了约5万枚BTC。尽管不能直接证明存在高杠杆炒作，但这确实反映更多资金流向了杠杆头寸，而非现货持仓，从而削弱了价格上涨的直接动力。尤其CME市场的期货和期权规模显著扩张，进一步放大衍生品对比特币短期波动的影响。5 V2 d$ u5 S6 C7 e0 p3 l+ L
从整体供需角度看：- q! ~) n6 `5 A/ F! E8 p
机构累计增持约20万枚BTC；
0 S2 K9 Q$ s. x% A/ \长期持有者派发超过45万枚BTC；2 Z* t& l0 N) s- `' }
超过5万枚BTC因衍生品市场而被“锁定”。0 k& S+ Z% b$ x# P( |- `
这三重因素的叠加，解释了为何在机构买盘登上新闻头条的同时，比特币价格却表现停滞。
- B; F6 e! V- N P0 R展望后市，尽管短期可能延续震荡，但当前格局并不构成市场顶部。若资金费率转负，可能引发空头挤压并推动币价再度上行。不过就目前而言，积累与派发之间的力量失衡，意味着横盘走势或仍将持续。) e% y' m1 L7 l# u
宏观层面看，比特币的牛市基础并未破坏。真正的现货积累仍在进行，若非如此，币价很可能已低于当前水平。市场恐慌贪婪指数目前处于49，仍属中性。24小时内价格波动有限，长期前景保持乐观。本周即将发布的美国通胀数据及下周美联储议息会议，可能为加密市场带来新的利好动力。! n- H2 H1 C: V: x. V9 n
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机构再怎么买，长线资金抛压砸盘，比特币价格还是没动，行情真难搞 |
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机构买了还是得有人卖嘛，持币者获利了结弄得币价没啥动静 |
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天天盈利什么也是格外让人嫉妒了啊，空闲时多多讲讲策略啊 |
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