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[lastpost] => 2761786 CoinShares：上周数字资产投资产品资金流入24.8亿美元（转） 1756736007 rainwang
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不是梗图，是数据在说话。我们判断一轮早期山寨季正在展开，理由很简单：* c( L, ~0 X( i4 W0 \. F
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市场结构： TOTAL3（剔除 BTC/ETH 的山寨总市值）相对两大主流币企稳；即便没有 BTC/ETH 的放量突破，市场宽度也在扩散。
5 {2 v% ~- j$ h$ l% `4 r领涨方向： SOL/ETH 上行、资金费率温和、强平不多——真买盘，不是挤空。7 W/ N; w+ p4 Z
催化因素： 美国ZF推进区块链应用，商务部将 GDP、PCE 等官方数据上链（经 Chainlink/Pyth），平台币阶段性重估等基本面把“场外”资金带回场内。; _/ l9 D4 {: I6 ^5 q6 f- w/ B( ?
ETF 资金面： ETF 仍净流入但明显降温；ETH 相关 DAT（币股）的市值/净值比（m/NAV）偏低 → 增发吸引力下降，可能给山寨留出更多空间。, W! D" L8 Y/ C" h
信号 1｜市场结构与 TOTAL3 的韧性
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过去 5 天的走势，更像山寨季开端而不是“只涨主流”的轮动。TOTAL3 在 BTC、ETH 震荡时未创新低；衍生品侧保持有序：资金费率接近中性、被动平仓有限——指向现货主导的真实需求。对交易员而言，重点很明确：不等 BTC/ETH 创新高，广度也能扩散；在配对交易里挑选山寨，性价比更高。7 D) o7 s, ]+ `- R% T; x V' H
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信号 2｜ SOL跑赢ETH，开始轮动7 r" j }8 v$ ^& e8 T5 q, ~" I
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SOL/ETH 上行同时资金费率平稳、没有明显挤空痕迹，说明是主动配置的真实买盘。历史上，这常常领先于高流动中盘和功能赛道的配对轮动；同时提供更低 β的表达：做多 SOL / 做空 ETH。: i E! Y1 X" p4 D
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信号 3｜主流币“稳，但不带节奏”
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来源：https://www.strategicethreserve.xyz// o8 u7 A/ B. O- Z* m
主流币的基本面依旧正面，但 ETH、BTC 的边际动能在下降：回调有承接、上攻缺追涨，难以直接推高新高。* d0 U3 ^. t: Q1 V/ w6 o9 z
# n0 L# V: i/ R6 ?以 以太坊币股 为例，m/NAV 多在 1.0–1.1×，跑输现货 ETH，难以支撑继续“增发+被动现货买入”的链条。我们的判断是：主流抄底盘足、追高盘弱，边际风险下沉到有事件催化的山寨更合理。
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3 c# o4 Z% A7 o6 k& W7 P+ X0 ` Y信号 4｜可落地的区块链应用在推进/ f$ K3 _7 g& g2 C' A$ }8 X
政策与基础设施两端都有硬催化：美国商务部宣布将实际 GDP、PCE 等官方系列上链（经 Chainlink、Pyth，覆盖 Arbitrum、Avalanche、Base 等），权威且可机读的数据为数据驱动型 DeFi、代币化风控、事件市场打开新场景。7 a) Q* X* g. k3 e$ h
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同时，区块链为底层的应用也获得了主流机构的认可和采用，Numerai（以 $NMR 激励、AI 驱动的对冲基金）获 摩根大通资管 5 亿美元策略容量承诺。
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% v$ w- s4 M1 J3 Q! ^, ?3 u平台币阶段性走强：OKB 受代币模型调整提振，CRO 因特朗普家族基金投资等相关消息面而受关注。以上进展都不依赖 BTC/ETH 创新高——这正是山寨季早期的典型特征。 q( k K& k- A$ i0 r4 [
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结论｜交易框架
2 f* |: T, `/ k当前画面：主流有序、ETF 净流入降温、DAT 溢价偏薄、硬催化把资金往下游带。4 {' O! T" [, C, h* r
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策略上继续坚持配对优先、新闻优先：/ D' b" d% {+ d! [- E5 T) a$ _
5 F5 W: ~7 N2 w3 R; f核心仓位： 多 SOL / 空 ETH；关注新币上涨
) @* l# g2 I: k" a卫星仓位： 以事件催化为锚，回调分批配置新闻驱动的山寨；直到资金流、资金费率或关键代理指标明确提示风格切换为止。8 {( e& k& u1 F& T, b# a
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
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当前离线
经验:
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总在线: 19200 小时
本月在线: 3 小时
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