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中信证券(26.430, 0.45, 1.73%)发布研报称,加密货币具有较好的隐私性和抗通胀性,自诞生以来成长迅速,并且正在逐步正规资产化。随着加密货币的刚需扩大,! M) s" s6 j! R N- v
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形成类似黄金的刚需托底,投机定价的格局。但短期来看由于货币化不足和边际定价者风险偏好高,加密货币反而投机性更强。中长期内,预计加密货币和黄金都将受益于+ t5 r8 S# E7 m- T, B6 h
4 K. m2 X$ h6 j4 q0 H9 f逆全球化、去美元化带来的货币化。“未来黄金”不必然包含比特币,但大概率有加密货币。短期内加密货币有望受益于特朗普任期内可能的监管放松,但需等待贸易、外交政
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策的确定性。
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中信证券主要观点如下:' o3 Z: W5 n6 y9 I, b
# Y% J) d$ Y- m" [) {/ a* Y3 r3 A 加密货币是一种基于区块链技术的数字货币,具有较好的隐私性、抗通胀性。3 ^) F+ u8 {7 K$ u' w7 v
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自其诞生以来,市场成长迅速,例如比特币呈指数型增长。( C6 _/ Y( @) A& o
. u0 f5 [$ R8 O* H" B" O 近期加密货币表现不佳,并未体现出避险属性。
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0 H7 Y- V/ R: [4 W3 d S8 G* U 2024年比特币主要有一季度和四季度两波集中上涨,分别是因为ETF发行、比特币减半、亚洲投资者热情高;以及特朗普交易影响。但2025年以来比特币及其他加密货币表现8 d+ E8 w3 T, S! Q: i
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不佳,与黄金走势背离,并未体现出避险属性。 Y/ V! U8 q& p/ [1 P& o
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加密货币市场与黄金愈发相似。& s P i# x( d' {
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从规模来看,加密货币市场仍明显小于黄金市场,增长空间巨大。从持有结构来看,两者都是集中度较高,且加密货币市场持有结构更加不透明,均有利于价格的长期上行。$ u/ V I( H* P7 E
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加密货币开始出现刚性需求,形成与黄金类似的刚需托底,投机定价的格局。/ {1 ~* d( B7 s5 p. {) g7 L( Y7 {, M
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由于加密货币在跨境支付、抗通胀信用方面具有优势,形成了快速增长的刚性需求。加密货币正在快速的“正规化”、“黄金化”,与黄金一样形成了刚需,以确保其难以出现泡沫
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- o; |, q# D: V3 b8 D破灭、大量投机交易完成定价的格局。
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6 H q0 s9 x% y: M+ ? 短期内,加密货币的货币及避险属性仍不及黄金,因此表现背离。- \5 ^+ T$ J; C( H
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我们认为根本的原因是1)社会认知、税收制度中加密货币的货币化程度不及黄金。2)由于加密货币高成长性,边际定价者的风险偏好高。短期内,加密货币避险属性和投机属性: A& r$ ~8 q& r" z
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共存,后者更占上风。长期来看这些因素望将淡化。
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: \3 h- _8 u2 x3 Y# ?* e 长期来看,加密货币料仍然有极大的增长空间,最根本的逻辑是逆全球化及去美元化,驱动黄金、加密货币的货币化。
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& N5 e& ?$ c$ S* J1 i$ D: S, X 2008年以来逆全球化和去美元化进程持续,预计加密货币坚实的市场需求仍将持续扩大。我们判断在长时间维度上,黄金和加密货币的货币属性,都会是“未来黄金”。由于技术劣
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6 Z) T" k) q1 I3 L" z$ L势,比特币不必然是未来的黄金,但“未来黄金”大概率包含加密货币。尽管如此,我们认为技术优势战胜信念优势需要很长时间,比特币在加密货币中的独有地位仍将维持很久。8 O% a' k @" A! b
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展望未来四年,比特币及其他加密货币在特朗普的支持下仍然可能表现亮眼,但短期转好需要特朗普给出确定性信号。
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本届特朗普ZF与硅谷的紧密联系让加密货币有望受益于潜在的监管放松。但短期内贸易政策不确定性等因素压制了风险偏好与流动性宽松。转涨或需等待特朗普给出外交和贸易政
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! n: R! r0 [0 h" S, t% r$ g0 {5 Z策确定性。未来若特朗普ZF对俄政策转向也可能带来风险。) G0 r* f1 ?6 h/ Y8 P. J6 q7 m
z/ e T% X9 B8 b: k! l 风险因素:
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1 _. c: b- U \9 \ 特朗普ZF政策超预期;美国联邦债务问题超预期;美联储货币政策宽松不及预期;地缘ZZ风险。
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