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[lastpost] => 2750705 比特币成“救国神器”?英财政部想靠72亿美元加密资产填财政缺口 1753374021 天策-瑶娥
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中信证券(26.430, 0.45, 1.73%)发布研报称,加密货币具有较好的隐私性和抗通胀性,自诞生以来成长迅速,并且正在逐步正规资产化。随着加密货币的刚需扩大,
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形成类似黄金的刚需托底,投机定价的格局。但短期来看由于货币化不足和边际定价者风险偏好高,加密货币反而投机性更强。中长期内,预计加密货币和黄金都将受益于
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逆全球化、去美元化带来的货币化。“未来黄金”不必然包含比特币,但大概率有加密货币。短期内加密货币有望受益于特朗普任期内可能的监管放松,但需等待贸易、外交政9 X% A! G( m9 W5 Z
! S% l' w+ l4 I! r' b3 k策的确定性。# J$ m e) c6 s( I% k+ p
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中信证券主要观点如下:0 ^) J+ x d5 t2 @1 C2 q
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加密货币是一种基于区块链技术的数字货币,具有较好的隐私性、抗通胀性。
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自其诞生以来,市场成长迅速,例如比特币呈指数型增长。2 m, I+ F5 W) p# i3 j9 A
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近期加密货币表现不佳,并未体现出避险属性。( O5 c+ ]+ h3 u2 l- m# \2 R8 Y
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2024年比特币主要有一季度和四季度两波集中上涨,分别是因为ETF发行、比特币减半、亚洲投资者热情高;以及特朗普交易影响。但2025年以来比特币及其他加密货币表现
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* E9 _+ m- F# F# u不佳,与黄金走势背离,并未体现出避险属性。
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加密货币市场与黄金愈发相似。
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: V) n6 |9 u+ q5 N( [; H" t' T9 M 从规模来看,加密货币市场仍明显小于黄金市场,增长空间巨大。从持有结构来看,两者都是集中度较高,且加密货币市场持有结构更加不透明,均有利于价格的长期上行。
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7 ~8 D: U1 C9 c& G2 } 加密货币开始出现刚性需求,形成与黄金类似的刚需托底,投机定价的格局。" v& O- g: k' r3 e5 Z
% @7 q- t$ Q4 J' D. g# M( q* [! m. _ 由于加密货币在跨境支付、抗通胀信用方面具有优势,形成了快速增长的刚性需求。加密货币正在快速的“正规化”、“黄金化”,与黄金一样形成了刚需,以确保其难以出现泡沫
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破灭、大量投机交易完成定价的格局。( O% B4 t) p0 \: G ]
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短期内,加密货币的货币及避险属性仍不及黄金,因此表现背离。
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1 J8 z$ L3 S O$ R) \5 c, e: ~/ [ 我们认为根本的原因是1)社会认知、税收制度中加密货币的货币化程度不及黄金。2)由于加密货币高成长性,边际定价者的风险偏好高。短期内,加密货币避险属性和投机属性
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' O C: G0 f$ A$ L( p$ p* F0 ?: u8 {共存,后者更占上风。长期来看这些因素望将淡化。8 s4 ]6 D3 [0 E) i
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长期来看,加密货币料仍然有极大的增长空间,最根本的逻辑是逆全球化及去美元化,驱动黄金、加密货币的货币化。
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2008年以来逆全球化和去美元化进程持续,预计加密货币坚实的市场需求仍将持续扩大。我们判断在长时间维度上,黄金和加密货币的货币属性,都会是“未来黄金”。由于技术劣4 h* W' w8 T/ ]0 J- N
4 D( X' E. T3 H' j7 J: w/ A6 e势,比特币不必然是未来的黄金,但“未来黄金”大概率包含加密货币。尽管如此,我们认为技术优势战胜信念优势需要很长时间,比特币在加密货币中的独有地位仍将维持很久。
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4 Q7 a" G& a3 N2 o# H 展望未来四年,比特币及其他加密货币在特朗普的支持下仍然可能表现亮眼,但短期转好需要特朗普给出确定性信号。9 u. o/ z" p5 t6 k# M
" D M+ T- v% }1 a 本届特朗普ZF与硅谷的紧密联系让加密货币有望受益于潜在的监管放松。但短期内贸易政策不确定性等因素压制了风险偏好与流动性宽松。转涨或需等待特朗普给出外交和贸易政
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策确定性。未来若特朗普ZF对俄政策转向也可能带来风险。% r5 |. D: }. w
: b1 R( c' m& n 风险因素:
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特朗普ZF政策超预期;美国联邦债务问题超预期;美联储货币政策宽松不及预期;地缘ZZ风险。+ I+ t; o; u; z7 H& j. |
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