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[lastpost] => 2751286 SpaceX突然挪动价值超1.5亿的比特币,是要抛售?还是只是“打扫钱包”? 1753413761 AOU1888
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; f. B0 i% }5 r8 e8 G 正如 Waterdrip Capital 创始人大山此前在《全球贸易新秩序下的Web3创业新逻辑》一文中也曾提到:“自特朗普重新入主白宫以来,一系列出人意料的经济和
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ZZ举措令全球市场持续动荡。其中,引发最大震动的举措之一是关税政策升级。投资者对未来的不确定性依然充满忧虑,全球金融体系仿佛步入‘乱纪元’。, `' ?6 d) f8 U3 G/ P6 H5 U
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但另外一方面来看,一系列动作表明美国欲将比特币与黄金共同作为新金融体系的锚定资产。美元稳定币+黄金+比特币三者或将共同勾勒出‘美元新秩序’的雏
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. u$ }! {% I) F) c4 g! O形——既保持美元的法定地位,又以实物和数字资产做支撑,提高抗风险能力。7 j7 Z( V7 Y: x0 B0 h ~% [
2 H0 K1 A" S8 T5 a9 A 加密下半场,简单的流量打法已难以为继,取而代之的是围绕硬核价值的创业逻辑。在当前市场环境下,面向创业者们的新机遇方向主要包括:比特币生态; L9 @0 X1 S4 _
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(包括 BTCFi)、其他公链生态(含 DeFi)、现实世界资产(RWA)、支付金融(PayFi)、加密概念股等。”. q, z& U' T8 ?* T1 d0 R. v/ [
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YBB Capital 联创:特朗普已成流动性黑洞,加密美股化已成定局
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而在讨论特朗普的影响时,YBB Capital 联创 John给出了不一样的答案。3 a7 [5 d" s- `
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他认为,“关税和贸易战对加密行业的影响并不显著,而特朗普上台后对市场的主要影响体现在波动性和流动性两个方面。7 C% |7 V+ a# H; \8 O( h* j
; u7 v1 k& w, c. W8 O0 \" W 波动性而言,特朗普政策的不确定性对美股造成了明显冲击,而自从天朝开始清退矿机和大陆用户后,加密市场波动性逐渐呈现出‘美股化’趋势,同时比特币
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3 Y. p7 K9 k ]现货 ETF 的完成也意味着 Crypto 走向了最终形态——美股化。现货 ETF 将比特币定性为商品,这意味着其在税收上需遵循与股票、债券类似的商品类规则。同时,
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ETF 也将比特币分为‘白色’与‘黑色’两部分:白色部分是在市场供需关系中,失去了去中心化与匿名性等原始需求驱动,仅保留可供投机的金融属性,其价值背书也
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从去中心化链条转移到中心化ZF;而黑色部分则代表着仍保有原始属性的‘正统’比特币。但目前市场主导权正逐步向‘白色比特币’倾斜,最大的庄家也从民间力量
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: Z, R' [& w1 H {; j6 c* C转变为美国ZF及其资本力量。
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% A; q* y7 W: Z2 {9 T: G+ h 流动性方面的变化往往比政策本身更具杀伤力,在 Web3 中,注意力=流动性。特朗普通过 Meme 币 TRUMP 将ZZ注意力转化为资产,用‘身份叙事 + 资产
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铸造 + 舆论操控’构造了一个叙事型的流动性黑洞。”: G, [5 ~: ?0 \4 o5 l0 t1 @1 z
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ArkStream 创始人:比特币的下一个对手是黄金% Q" t( h1 t; \: S
& X5 J* a5 \8 \. s 针对“特朗普效应”,ArkStream 创始人 Ye Su认为需要从作为行业风向标的比特币所受影响去看。
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在经历了“技术底座→主流资产”的 2 大发展阶段之后,特朗普上台及其政策的主要影响体现在,能否推动比特币向全球避险资产转型,未来五到十年左右,行
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2 q9 X( P/ s3 m/ H7 N业应该更多关注比特币能否实现与黄金同等的资产地位。尤其是美国的主权基金能否助推这一进程尤为重要。如果能够实现,那么比特币的增长空间仍然非常巨大,
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毕竟相较于黄金的市值仍然有 8-10 倍的空间;而如果无法实现,那么比特币的发展空间就相对有限了。
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小结:加密不再小众,亦无法独善其身
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6 o% ^8 K0 l) r& y& r 无论如何,特朗普颇具戏剧性与冲突性的各类政策措施,带给加密货币行业的影响是具备高度不确定性与机遇性的——前者体现在市场大盘的震荡波动以及特朗$ I5 x) W" l1 p7 U/ {& F
- u# j* H9 M* \& Z9 [ e* X- r7 X普本人借助 WLFI、TRUMP 等代币项目向市场施加的“价格影响”;后者则体现在比特币的避险属性的进一步增强、加密概念股、稳定币行业、PayFi 赛道等方面。! R2 y- V2 g3 w+ } a8 M
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