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[lastpost] => 2813516 奈杰尔·法拉奇投资英国比特币资产公司Stack/n（转） 1773214189 rainwang
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。( y; f' W" G% P; _+ n* c# ~# A
8 O: ], W9 B+ M9 Y0 ]6 ^1 q% U) ~瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心$ m. J! q( ?2 N5 T$ t2 m$ A
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衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”
5 w, j X( \- ]美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金" J- [% P0 d3 u3 a: P
! l- M. Q( K! ~融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。
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- X. c# P0 I; W: Q8 K过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益( c& u0 k- j, r. T
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率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。
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然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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+ [, V3 B: s. i* T: _. K/ }9 o长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更
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& i3 u% C# C: Q4 G) w是表示：
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" X- ?' X0 O1 M6 ~% K这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。. L% T6 d9 S5 Y0 J/ I V
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历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币
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( a& C0 D: i9 h1 I! g* a特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史4 X. {$ `5 n' ^+ i& v
) [6 U8 [* D/ _+ l# k! P标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：4 X" e6 L( [+ o, S6 u/ w
' O% k! S+ Z" w1 l周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。2 U2 p; a, b7 s# a( n
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周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。9 k0 l0 [$ ?) f: K. |
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周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债! O0 U$ W& f! C# Z- d2 f5 `; i
! }$ a# u% b, l; [7 Y! h% ~收益率冲高回落。
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1 H- y1 z% ?! C# j* C' U w周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。
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周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。
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/ ?& H% o: B! V! |8 Y) |Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，* {# Q4 c' [& W/ k
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是的，这正是我们所看到的。"; Q% ?+ t" _2 T1 w$ L# X9 H
3 l, u% U2 P- N7 v/ L& ~3 V! q根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。
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Renaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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