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[lastpost] => 2770288 美国ZF关门迫在眉睫，加密货币市场下滑（转） 1759255850 小钱儿
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。1 g% S; a1 C$ u% r9 @
; _2 E7 h. k, u0 x8 w2 A1 v* m瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
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5 M% K$ j Q1 t3 }; ~衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”
3 F1 A8 ~: |$ q4 ~美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
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融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。( m+ O! ~1 ?" b. ~9 c
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过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益
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# y; p4 ]; D& c |率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。
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然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国+ n2 C3 Z6 j/ W! a7 P, Y2 V' k
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长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更1 @% {" d% _% F9 Q9 L) a o
6 c' O4 ^& E1 G% K% |9 a是表示：1 h# `& A7 H8 {3 f: h/ y; _
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。
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历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币
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+ O1 {/ S/ X! g1 n# k3 ~特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史
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标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：
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8 v1 Q. _$ y9 ^ p周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。; H: }4 k9 J2 I! Q( j' O
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周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。
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7 E, L& F. `- z3 U1 h周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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收益率冲高回落。1 \, b O- X3 A3 z O1 g
$ U! h3 _) p8 n周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。
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' Z8 i ~9 H; @% }: ~& D周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。
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Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，
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是的，这正是我们所看到的。"9 j3 D! i5 {' G1 q
4 }* V' v' b: O0 _. b- A0 w根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去; S3 ?" E( ]' {) k Z
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。: @& e; M1 J6 q+ r: z
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' L. K' D6 d5 O; t, {* uRenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"% ~& K6 m8 L" K) G- L# W7 n3 r
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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