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[虚拟币交流]
Bitwise高管：人们正低估比特币 BTC将大幅上涨(转）
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据两位 Bitwise 高管称，在特朗普ZF威胁要改革全球贸易，而经济指标表明各国央行可能向市场注入现金之际，比特币是一个“世代机遇”。8 J6 `2 U9 b/ U3 Q. U# {; D9 y
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Bitwise Asset Management 的阿尔法策略主管 Jeff Park 在 2 月 16 日的 X 帖子中表示：“世界确实处于最大混乱的边缘。”
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) a# E, P" }+ K# }2 ~* h; qPark 指出，2 月 12 日众议院共和党预算计划将债务上限提高 4 万亿美元，旨在增加ZF支出，同时还有去全球化趋势加剧，尤其是唐纳德·特朗普2 S+ u! L1 m" {3 z) P- n# c: X! p
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最近升级的互惠关税威胁。$ c' |/ I8 O1 b3 ^" i# Z7 ~/ G0 L
+ R; [* c2 n+ b. L/ W+ n7 hPark 还指出，市场将出现他所谓的“最大延迟”，指出“黄金跑赢大盘的尾部风险”，共和党高达 4.5 万亿美元的“史无前例的减税”，以及他认为即将实施8 d4 d# Z% g: `
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的收益率曲线控制 (YCC)——央行将长期利率作为刺激借贷和投资的目标。
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" c, i2 a5 v# e) P# k) u& f美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔对今年进一步降息的可能性泼了冷水——2 月 11 日，他告诉参议院银行委员会，美国经济“保持强劲”，美国“不需要急于调整”利率。
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+ }- e5 d& f ?* ~. U* R1 V, ABitwise 首席执行官 Hunter Horsley 在 2 月 16 日的 X 帖子中写道：“人们严重低估了比特币今年进入主流的巨大飞跃。从未如此乐观。”, s$ G% T' Z- _( o: e
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“BTC IV 百分位数是全年最低的，你看不到这一代机会，所以我们不一样了，”Park 补充道，他指的是比特币的隐含波动率百分位数——过去一年中波动率
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低于当前水平的天数百分比。
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2 ~9 P0 B ~, K/ k; x7 I根据 Deribit 的数据，比特币的波动率指数目前为 50.90，低于年度高点 71.28，IV 百分位数为 12.3。
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. T2 T/ b7 L0 M3 D; c据 CoinGecko 数据，比特币在过去 24 小时内下跌超过 1.5%，交易价格略高于 96,000 美元。( B3 T, N! R" A# K8 m: N$ f
0 y1 H7 N+ N* [7 }* c) U今年到目前为止，比特币的交易价格在 90,000 美元至 100,000 美元之间，但在上个月末特朗普就职典礼期间达到 108,786 美元的峰值。! r; [" ~4 D3 D7 X8 G2 B
+ {' C; q" }8 B" f, t$ w追踪加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数的市场情绪在 2 月 17 日为 51 分（总分为 100 分），表明市场处于“中性”状态。市场情绪较上周的“恐惧”水平有所改善，但低于9 z2 Z" a( f6 V& s
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上个月更为积极的市场情绪水平。
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