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[lastpost] => 2774974 比特币下跌,黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束(转) 1760891020 小钱儿
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随着价格的整合,比特币的需求已降至近几周的最低水平。然而,交易所比特币供应的减少使得价格大幅下跌成为可能。+ B9 B5 r- k$ h, Z& E% o/ a9 b: Y
自8月5日从下跌中恢复以来,比特币[BTC]的交易区间在56K-62K美元之间。5 L/ X' w D5 o4 P' J+ b" }
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自8月8日以来,价格没有跌破或超过这一区间,这表明可能会出现盘整或市场不确定性。
- L2 ~ x6 S/ F+ D. S
( L3 m. J$ D2 `4 [( W& ]5 A1 \阻止该区域以上出现重大突破的因素之一是比特币需求增长疲软,根据CryptoQuant的数据,比特币需求仍处于较低水平。最近几周,这甚至变成了负面的。4 n, _6 u0 k# w- k6 H1 L
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2024年4月,比特币的需求达到了三年来的峰值,恰逢比特币减半事件。然而,自那以后,它已降至今年的最低水平。; q8 ^, X4 p6 L7 F& M
- ^! n! W# ^- e( m- \1 A( \' j
那么,为什么比特币的需求会下降呢?$ C5 }* m, F! X7 \1 F' E
I E% ~' R# ~* v观察ETF和鲸鱼活动$ Q5 L- r9 @" Q7 `' V# N
分析指出,流入现货比特币ETF的资金正在枯竭。3月,随着BTC飙升至历史高点,比特币ETF的平均每日购买量为12500 BTC。
1 s% Q' U8 F# Y1 N, Y) a
' d! o! b- W+ z; G上周降至1300 BTC。
1 l7 r+ h" M' C% {
1 h7 d( @ V9 Z5 n+ w从SoSoValue上可以看出,自8月9日以来,流入现货比特币ETF的资金总额一直低于1亿美元大关。虽然这些产品拥有超过550亿美元的净资产,但需要购买活动来提振整体需求。
0 J! n9 g3 U$ J. p2 {: b
# a* ?% ]+ M+ s" ~# T/ E鲸鱼似乎也在减少他们的比特币股份。30天平均鲸鱼持有量已从2月份的6%降至1%。这是自2021年2月以来每个CryptoQuant的最快下降。
6 M1 i2 v, F* Q) j* S
) j( m$ F a8 m! G W, S$ r鲸鱼在支持比特币价格增长方面发挥着至关重要的作用。鲸鱼持有量的减少表明整个市场普遍看跌。% h, [# L* @" v1 m1 F, B, V3 q
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Santiment的数据进一步证实了鲸鱼活动的减少,该数据显示,自3月以来,持有1000至10000枚比特币的比特币地址大幅下降。: u9 D# x6 k4 v5 M
$ [& X) N6 x& ?' q0 q1 n, u! K尽管鲸鱼活动放缓,但长期比特币持有者增加了头寸。这些持有者一直在以每月约391000 BTC的速度增加他们的BTC持有量。/ n8 H- X" s" Z, T. J" J6 {8 S; `" L
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比特币会突破其区间吗?4 k; M5 Q7 O# }( P/ X3 J
随着对比特币需求的放缓,人们不禁要问,比特币是否会突破5.6万至6.2万美元的区间。对链上数据的深入研究描绘了一幅严峻的画面。
- b/ R! i5 w* y p2 G! V" l3 O
4 n+ y- r/ ?- G; D根据IntoTheBlock的数据,超过300万个地址以这个价格范围购买了比特币。以这些价格买入的新投资者并没有获得可观的利润。
2 J$ Q Z2 b! d* [. v% A* N( X4 [6 k* U# N9 g+ k) e
因此,突破62000美元将面临抛售压力,因为他们急于获利。
1 l, b! E1 B5 U% ^) z9 F
3 j% a% _* ~6 Q4 y4 S技术指标也无法证明突破的必要性。相对强弱指数(RSI)也保持区间震荡,购买势头没有显著飙升。
% z) A0 p$ W/ i" o; M
4 C, {; y% B3 h- w! g: W位于积极区域的Awesome Oscillator显示出上升趋势。然而,短直方图条指向可能减弱的上升趋势。4 _# v0 d, p Y) X _
然而,由于交易所比特币供应量下降,短期内不太可能出现低于当前范围的急剧下降趋势。6 J) n' d, Y' d8 D; }1 A6 X/ v
+ c/ v0 ~2 L; E: o" U. _
根据CryptoQuant的数据,交易所供应比率在过去一年中急剧下降。因此,尽管需求明显较低,但外汇供应也较低,从而降低了大幅回调的风险。4 r$ Z% m; T9 ^" _
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