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[虚拟币交流]
比特币、以太坊面临23亿美元期权到期——之后会发生什么？（转）
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BTC和ETH的交易低于其最大痛点，这表明交易员可能面临严重损失隐含波动率下降，意味着未来缺乏看涨预期$ S7 |3 Y1 r- ~" W9 J
价值约23亿美元的比特币（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）期权合同将于5月3日星期五到期。根据Deribit Exchange的数据，比特币期权价值13.5亿美元。另一方面，ETH合约价值9.9亿美元。这些合同的价值似乎低于AMBCrypto上周公布的93亿美元。
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7 N! M( y: c% n0 V这种下跌可能归因于这两种加密货币的价格走势。在本周的大部分时间里，比特币和以太坊在最近升值之前都出现了严重下跌。因此，交易员们对增仓持谨慎态度。
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在撰写本文时，比特币的看跌/看涨比率（PCR）为0.50。这个比率衡量了整体市场情绪。PCR高于1表明交易员买入看跌期权多于买入看涨期权——这是看跌情绪的迹象。 a2 `; O6 s1 S
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交易员为业绩做准备，无ZF状态迫在眉睫: A. {: w. X1 r
然而，如果PCR低于0.70，则意味着看涨多于看跌，这意味着更广泛的情绪是看涨的。简单地说，这一数据表明，交易员预计比特币本周结束时将比开始时更强劲。3 j! W( l4 N9 ]) X
, E/ s! P0 M4 s比特币的最大痛点是6.1万美元。这意味着，如果比特币跌至这个价格，大多数期权交易员将遭受巨大损失。, g& O, g0 J& Q# |5 x- H
2 t; C" ^: U1 f; C1 r- I, c; \以以太坊为例，其PCR为0.37，这意味着牛市的赌注比熊市的赌注多。ETH的最大痛点是3000美元。因此，交易员可能需要希望altcoin在交易日结束前交易高于该水平。9 k0 ? J3 v* c- p" Q/ x
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截至发稿时，比特币和以太坊的估值均低于最大痛点。如果在合同到期时仍然如此，那么对许多交易员来说，这一天可能是“红色的一天”。
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BTC和ETH可能在本周结束时看跌，原因有几个。Greeks.live，X上著名的期权交易手柄，解释道，
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- `! n2 V: _! _5 ?“香港ETF上市未能带来太多增量，美国BTC ETF持续流出，市场疲软导致市场信心减弱。当前点位持续横盘的可能性不大，没有反弹势必是下行接力，对市场信心不足的巨鲸。”4 P4 P* t/ N& N8 D4 F
波动性下跌：比特币和以太坊会紧随其后吗？0 W% X) `* n$ ^# a* b! _2 C
此外，AMBCrypto研究了比特币的隐含波动性（IV）。IV显示了市场的信心水平，以及未来购买看涨/看跌期权是否是个好主意。
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/ h% U3 |8 Z/ ?# ^如果IV上涨，市场参与者不确定下一个价格可能会走向何方。然而，如果指标下降，这意味着交易员不愿意支付额外费用来保护他们的现有头寸。
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考虑到比特币和ETH的价格，IV下跌，这表明交易员一直不确定他们的看涨赌注是否会有回报。
. s' g L _1 X/ K如果这种情绪持续下去，ETH的价格可能会再次跌破2900美元。对于BTC来说，它可能会再次以低于59000美元的价格开始交易。7 n& y+ C2 m, g& P& a
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