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[虚拟币交流]
比特币完成四年一度“减半”!小摩警告:这将是暴跌的开始…(转)
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上周六,市场期待已久的比特币“减半”终于完成了!历史上,比特币“减半”事件通常被看作是推动比特币价格上涨的催化剂,因为新比特币的供应减少可能会增加其价值。# m6 J0 p% [ U/ f# o- K7 S
$ G4 i* [; _) f! t7 I然而,在这次“减半”中,比特币可能很难进一步上涨——摩根大通甚至预测,在本轮“减半”完成后,比特币价格可能会暴跌。/ j' e* u8 V/ {* r
/ }) c p1 c( J# B5 n$ H“减半”并不一定会带来进一步上涨
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比特币“减半”是指矿工通过解决复杂的数学难题来验证交易并获得新比特币作为奖励的数额减半,从而削减进入流通的新比特币数量。这是比特币协议中设计的一种机制,
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! j* _% E; |) `5 i+ Y( W! w旨在控制新比特币的发行速度。“减半”通常发生在比特币协议设定的特定时间点,大约每四年发生一次。+ x, e, V- t: U
8 ~" k+ n3 z% z$ T; e, y# W+ W数据显示,北京时间2024年4月20日8:09,比特币于区块高度840000成功完成第四次减半,比特币网络的挖矿奖励由6.25BTC减半至3.125BTC,上一次减半发生在2020年
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* a( f2 Z3 v- ]5月11日。6 c( Q, c8 Y p2 N0 e: h
. G& ~/ M9 w" d) Z' ]; P: m, N此前的数个月中,市场普遍预计这一事件将成为比特币的看涨催化剂,帮助该代币在2024年创下历史新高。然而如果我们回顾过往的历史,会发现尽管“减半”事件通常伴随# d5 R- V, T! [& O
# _$ K3 S! E- A- u+ q' N着比特币价格的大幅波动,但并不是每次减半后都立即出现价格上涨,有时价格会在减半后一段时间内调整。
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而这次,摩根大通的尼古拉斯·帕尼吉特佐格鲁(Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou)等分析师团队表示:“我们预计比特币价格在减半后不会上涨,因为这一利好已经被消化了。事1 ~8 |! p0 t" N& T# k
. _8 ~: G5 H7 w6 s U' m实上,我们认为比特币价格在减半后将会下跌,原因有几个。”' O6 P6 W! Z# K8 G7 G
. \1 j9 q8 ^0 Q, F% ^1 e- B几个原因促使比特币大跌( F* l$ h# j) ?' k" G- Z$ ]- {3 O
" N7 G6 |6 Y+ I+ [; |! M" D( c+ [首先,摩根大通表示,比特币市场在3月份飙升至创纪录高点后,目前仍处于超买区间。帕尼吉特佐格鲁指出了几个可以证实这一点的指标。. M8 N! J. e5 H' u6 Y. @ F
# @ H) Z4 j- M6 f- O他此前在3月底的另一份报告中表示:“市场对比特币价格在年底前大幅上涨的前景仍然相当乐观,这种乐观情绪的很大一部分来自于这样一种观点:即使比特币的供应在
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4 [4 u( v0 i3 \* L0 p4 c0 }" l, p减半事件后减少,通过现货ETF的比特币需求仍将以同样的速度保持增长。”
# X0 p" D+ p0 V3 P( B- _/ h
$ B" B, t9 G* j7 d摩根大通还观察到,尽管最近加密市场复苏,但风险资本融资仍然很低,这是比特币价格的另一个不利因素。 B+ A6 V1 h' h& _% ?$ W
t, ]6 ]0 l# V* d
“我们此前曾认为,加密风险投资流入的复苏是加密市场持续复苏的必要条件,因此在我们看来,今年以来风险投资流入的低迷构成了下行风险。”摩根大通在报告中写道。
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6 _2 n+ L) N( t1 G! l5 G' k分析师们表示,“减半”后比特币挖矿公司将受到打击:一些公司可能会由于挖矿回报减少而选择搬迁,以提高效率,另一些矿商可能会与大型上市矿商合并。) j/ v! o+ b, Q
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分析师写道:“在减半事件发生后,一些比特币挖矿公司也可能会寻求多元化,进入拉丁美洲或非洲等低能源成本地区,部署效率低下的挖矿设备,以从这些闲置的挖矿
7 r6 m& ?1 {9 C5 @. h5 M/ q# W/ p* W1 B& ~/ ?! `5 t, R4 j7 j% b
设备中获得回报价值。”
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