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[虚拟币交流]
MicroStrategy每次宣布购买BTC就是下跌信号?(转)
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作者:南枳 2020 年 8 月至今,MicroStrategy 共宣布了 28 次 BTC 购买,累计购买了 158245 枚比特币,总持仓均价 29582 USDT。 而每次宣布购买,社交媒体上常常会出现以下声音: ① MicroStrategy 每次购买均价都比宣布时的市场价高(多套救); ② MicroStrategy 一宣布购入 BTC,市场就要开始下跌。 Odaily星球日报对 MicroStrategy 的 28 次 BTC 购买进行了复盘,探究是否 MicroStrategy 宣布购买 BTC 与市场价格存在某种联系。 MicroStrategy 官宣价差分析MicroStrategy 的 28 次 BTC 购买价格情况如下,可以看出“宣布时的市场价格”与“购买价格”之间有一定时间段存在明显价差。 而“宣布时的市场价格”大于“购买价格”的比例达 60.7% ,价差均值为-1.43% ,即 MicroStrategy 的宣布时期确有一定倾向,平均下跌 1.43% 后宣布购买。 价差(绝对值)具体情况如下: 而以价差率衡量则结论更为显著一点: MicroStrategy 官宣市场情况分析对 MicroStrategy 官宣后的各时段各市场情况进行分析,剔除了 9 月 25 日的购买,其中: 综合结果如下表: 可见,“MicroStrategy 一宣布购入 BTC,市场就要开始下跌”的说法并非空穴来风,短期内的三类市场均偏向了下跌,但时间扩大到一周后,上涨概率开始回升,而以 ETH 市场规律最为明显。 另一方面,MicroStrategy 每次购买量(或金额)不尽相同,以金额作为权重进行加权计算更能突出 MicroStrategy 的判断,其计算公式如下: 加权后计算结果如下,前三天下跌的情况依旧未变,但幅度有所减小,而后的盈亏比开始有大幅上升,说明 MicroStrategy 在下重注的时候,长线上涨概率更高。 结论市场关于 MicroStrategy 的两个规律总结确实与统计结果相符,而作为首家购买比特币的纳斯达克上市公司,重仓 BTC 的 MicroStrategy 大部分仓位在 20 年末就以建立完毕,曾浮盈相当可观,然其至今仅出售过一次比特币,虽具短期反指体质,但以仓位证明了其对牛市的信心。
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