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[lastpost] => 2755773 比特币价格有望创下新高——但这一差距可能会减缓比特币的涨势(转) 1754827418 天策-菱玖
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[虚拟币交流]
以太坊依然是弱势联动比特币,涨幅没有比特币大,跌的会比大饼快(转)
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隔夜的走势,用跌宕起伏来说并不为过,很多人将原因总结为美国ZF和门头沟砸盘的假消息造成,但其实从谣言的传播时间来看,实际上是晚于砸盘时间的,所以隔夜这波急跌并不来源于门头沟谣言,但究竟来自于哪里呢,和上一次砸盘一样,很难鉴定砸盘筹码的来源。从链上数据来看,交易所充提量并没有异动,合约数据也没有大幅增加,说明这次砸盘还是依靠现货合力砸盘,至于是哪里来的神秘力量,就不得而知了,但基本可以确定的是,这种存在于交易所中的巨鲸群体应该不多,大概率和上一次是同一拨所为,获利模式很难界定,大概率只是为了大规模减仓抽取流动性(做市商JUMP确实减了不少筹码)。 比较明显的是,隔夜这波比特币砸盘之前,美股市场加密货币概念股均出现率先下跌,如Microstrategy和Coinbase均早于比特币下跌,同时美国第一共和银行也早于比特币下跌,这些事件都不太符合我们的常识,且比较诡异,很可能是美国加密板块的机构资金抽取流动性,以补足由银行流动性带来的缺口,但这种抽血的持续性大概率是有限的,毕竟资金体量不可能是无限大。 从科技股的财报来看,已经公布的几大巨头都是超过预期的,晚间还会继续公布,很可能会进一步提振纳斯达克的走势,对比特币应该会是小利好。另外晚间也会公布美国一季度GDP和周初失业金人数,会对美股产生强烈的波动,币圈的波动也不会太小,但我们应该坚信整体的逻辑并没有改变,在美联储对第一共和银行救助概率下降的情况下,银行业危机会持续,比特币应该会因此产生上涨动能,快速回调和抛压只是暂时的,向上趋势尚未改变,回踩28000上方是短期机会。 以太坊依然是弱势联动比特币,涨幅没有比特币大,跌的会比大饼快,先不参与。 比特币的另一个利好来源于BRC20代币,不仅炒作汹涌,而且铸造模型上也利于减少比特币的流通盘,但目光更多的应该关注在比特币生态上的一些新币,市场小币欠缺炒作思路时,这种共识类的小币生态往往容易被反复炒。 其他币不讲了,市场变化非常快且非常没有套路,行情变化多数发生在大家睡觉的凌晨,想投机炒作可能就得辛苦点,整体策略还是回调上车,毕竟趋势尚未破坏。 0 z8 Y6 n$ C p, |1 E
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