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[lastpost] => 2790633 比特币ETF刚刚经历了数月来最大的单日涨幅之一,市值增加了4.57亿美元。(转) 1766075888 人生如赌
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上次分享了第一篇,这次继续来分享第二篇。
6 R& n' p6 R7 E9 h# r' m0 @1 X; p3 M
5. 废话的不对称原则
* E7 D$ |5 m9 Y% i8 p0 h& ] s. w反驳废话所需的能量比产生废话要大一个数量级。
& O; c, ]) j: n. X9 s9 Q7 c
& v/ t: ^6 E) |8 M4 S. ]回想: 写 luna 的优点=成千的点赞。% S" g0 ~5 Y0 o" A% X' v2 ?
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写 luna 的缺点=无数的敌人和谩骂。0 E+ A1 G0 Y7 O4 R
" n3 e" J, j( j6 G) u# q, p
每个周期,都会有邪教类型的项目,人们无视核心,只因利益一致而拼死维护。
0 H. [" E5 A9 ?8 `7 K" U! q/ d; D
而对抗它们需要太多的精力。* L) H9 M# t, S
h) A c! y( J. r6.风险不可知原则(黑天鹅)
7 U6 O% H# G7 n b C被知道的风险:智能合约漏洞。2 `8 P# A4 S5 k9 }3 F
) \" e7 W; R- O7 h& F3 i
不可知的风险:911、3箭崩溃等。& u5 K$ m) i) q6 a, L- X8 U0 |# j
, R) L3 V; s0 Q9 ~3 m2 U因为不可知的风险一直存在,只有多样化才能防范。" Z$ G' U! K' U J5 q) d
) y7 s1 N% R( f4 r2 i) P想象一下罕见事件:5 F, Q8 i1 b6 K% b2 V5 e
0 p6 s( v/ n# _* b7 i( x
• 中本聪的钱包苏醒
& S9 Z1 M; W1 D; Z, C6 g3 b+ U
9 ?: ^" j& p2 o: z• 核打击
9 l5 F7 w; f0 z/ Y8 U3 s/ a: _. o
3 K* K \( }* b3 P/ n$ k我们倾向于低估黑天鹅的影响!4 h4 b. F$ G( n9 Z! K
: `3 I! c o" C0 ~; R7.二八定律
$ V/ M8 `" l7 h在币圈:
1 V- p/ r& B5 Q- h* ~
7 q" U7 q( O) G! z& \+ Q1 w; R80% 的收入来自 20% 的协议。- s, g) [5 q% L( c
# d4 F1 j5 X, I; P- p4 x80%的利润被20%的人拿走。
1 r" w- U8 V l% v1 c8 z2 _$ |' a8 {5 k+ k$ M
我们大多数时候是8,而不是2,时刻警惕这一点。
( o+ o, j% E2 ?/ \2 d( M, H9 L$ N0 X# J. n' h. w
8.网络效应
1 b3 g1 b. n# m1 ?2 l产品随着更多用户加入而更有价值。
: J8 J+ m1 {( c& `; T. Q g( i0 N; G7 g
想想脸书如果没人使用会有什么价值?
' P# o! ?3 l6 N
% d% }, W7 @% f+ u) X X一个产品产生了网络效应,就成为了护城河。
5 l9 v* I3 i$ {% G2 F8 k" t
, c) v( g" F+ y% T# }' Z e投资时,要考虑什么产品能产生护城河。 往往只有一个产品能获胜。. _6 A' w6 W& Q( H1 ?
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