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为什么我从不加杠杆,也奉劝大家不要加杠杆
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1,一个很简单的道理: 复利公式涨跌的两边,是不对等的。比如,如果100涨100%=200,200跌50%=100;再比如,100每年亏30%,连续三年,然后再每年涨30%,连续三年。
最后的结果并非回本,而是:亏损25%。 如果你加了杠杆,不好意思这个反向复利会大的惊人
投资是不确定的游戏,短期亏损是常见的,长期看收益也是基本确定的,但是亏损要用更大的涨幅才能弥补,杠杆则指数级增大了难度 因此控制风险的能力,比短期搏取更高超额收益的能力更重要。
但是人们总是看正向复利的惊人结果,或者自信于自己能力和运气,而忽略向复利的可怕威力,选择性忽视风险
巴菲特从不借钱炒股,而且他总是留有大量现金,卖房的时候也会全款,就是随时都在抵御可能发生但无法预知的市场风险,永远不要冒不能接受的风险
这是一个专业投资人最基本的素质 我看到过很多早期浮盈惊人,但市场一个正常波动,导致杠杆融资投资人一无所有的案例,往往是奋斗十年,20天报销
你永远不知道的倒金字塔投入陷阱: 很多投资人,在牛市底部就开始参与,但是一轮牛市下来,最后发现亏钱了
为啥? 当市场极度低迷的时候,所有的迹象都在向出借者表明市场已经无望,各种媒体都在发表针对股市消极的言论,牛市中的大神都销声匿迹了
此时大家黯然神伤,大多数人都选择空仓等待牛市的到来,只有少数有胆量的人才敢持有部分仓位,然而牛市不期而至 从熊到牛的过程中,很多币几十百倍的上涨,但基本是庄家拉升导致,大部分玩家持仓不大,所以获得收益并不高
市场景气度到达顶点后开始回落,但此时出借者普遍满仓或重仓,这个时候市场稍微回落,导致亏损巨大,把前面赚的都吞噬了
如果你还加了杠杆,那不好意思,可能直接让你回到解放前。随着市场景气度的不断回落和股指的下跌,出借者不断降低仓位,等到了底部的时候,基本空仓了
想一下,是不是每轮牛熊都在上演这样的故事:每个人都信奉“低买高卖”的赚钱法则,但具体实施的时候往往成了“高买低卖”
所以,别加杠杆,别对自己太有信心,投资人投入的资金常与市场的风险呈正比,与收益能力呈反比。风险大了,投资人反而敢于投入更多,毕竟这贪婪就是人的本性,戒掉太难了! 来源:金色财经 |
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