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[lastpost] => 2785722 比特币5大信号决定本轮牛熊走向（转） 1764565940 小钱儿
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[虚拟币交流]
贝莱德斥资1.25亿美元购买比特币为何令比特币交易员感到不安？（转）
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加密货币市场正面临压力。
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8 D( B9 h$ a4 M1 P截至发稿时，比特币 (比特币) 在未能守住 94,000 美元上方后下跌 2.6%，至 89,596 美元左右的低点。与此同时，以太坊 [以太坊] 也出现类似走势，下跌 3.72% 至 3,038 美元。, S. m3 R7 f, }; P8 n* q1 K7 c
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此次剧烈回调加剧了散户投资者的恐慌情绪。然而，在恐慌背后，机构巨头们却在增加投资，加倍下注。$ c: L* V, e0 E" h S. Q7 `3 |
5 i6 q' ^) b. V' e贝莱德存入了比特币和以太坊/ `0 ?3 n% T1 K7 H3 J2 L
12月5日，贝莱德已存1.255亿美元BTC以及价值 250 万美元的以太坊到 Coinbase。. ?5 k4 o x# a# G7 L* N
5 b( A) [5 J3 a分析师泰德·皮洛斯警告说，这可能预示着机构抛售潮的到来，并可能加剧市场的不稳定性。' H/ H7 d8 B( W; Z, M2 }2 M
" W% a9 q! m9 s9 l- v% F! G4 T" T- J他说： I2 J, \" K; c! q
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“销量还会继续增长吗？”
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! O; ?$ A% V3 b9 `7 X因此，问题来了：目前的下跌是进一步抛售的信号，还是仅仅是精明的投资者在悄悄地为这轮由 ETF 驱动的周期设定了新的、更高的底线？5 A' W1 K, x! T2 e
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此举为何引发担忧？# U; f) O y% P
比特币近期价格下跌，未能守住 94,000 美元的关口，这不可避免地将人们的注意力集中在大型机构的动向上，特别是贝莱德数百万美元的比特币存款。ETH到 Coinbase。
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3 p3 D, r) Y5 ~4 v$ I& I! Q# }* f在加密货币市场中，向交易所的大额转账很快就会被视为看跌信号，主要是因为存在清算风险，因为这会增加可出售的供应量。
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由于 ETF 资金流出和宏观经济的不确定性已经加剧了市场的紧张情绪，市场对此类波动反应强烈。
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% k* i* ]* p# S. r/ J) v因此，如果机构真的进行清算，新增供应可能会压低价格，过去的一些案例也加剧了这种担忧，这些案例表明，大额存款先于价格调整出现。
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7 i# D3 }! G) Q, ?对于散户投资者而言，看到大型基金将资产转移到交易平台通常预示着即将出现问题。; q/ L' P8 ~6 h+ R7 F; ? [
& q8 |. V( T. ]
然而，这种恐慌忽略了一个关键点：管理数十亿美元的 ETF 通常需要进行与即将出售无关的例行转移。
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/ Z" s# G* G. j. O还会有更多销售吗？
, y9 n ^2 ]! k+ Q然而，仅凭定金并不能自动转化为后续销售。
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) m- {( M0 `) O6 r9 A, S$ L& V对于像贝莱德这样的 ETF 发行商而言，此类基金变动通常反映了日常运营需求、托管调整、赎回处理、再平衡或其他内部工作流程。4 f. U+ c# L3 |- Q' k5 e
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贝莱德依靠 Coinbase Prime 进行机构托管和大宗交易，这体现了一种系统性的策略，而不是恐慌性抛售。
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通常情况下，这种大额转账是 ETF 创建和赎回过程中的常规步骤，旨在保持价格一致。
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即便如此，技术指标仍然表明短期前景看跌。& n- e, X4 m$ c: C
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截至撰稿时，BTC 的相对强弱指数 (RSI) 和移动平均收敛/发散指标 (MACD) 均低于其中性水平，证实了短期至中期内抛售动能的主导地位。/ K+ c1 I. h# t; v+ X7 D2 o
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来源：Trading View
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* S) C4 Y2 x, y4 F0 ?要彻底扭转市场局面，从“熊市主导”转变为“牛市突破”，比特币必须成功突破并守住 98,000 美元的关键阻力位。
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9 c# B3 u2 p; J- B3 B6 K2 h在此之前，市场技术面依然低迷，容易受到波动影响。
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最后想说的话7 M# u" R: A9 Q6 i4 S: G
零售市场出现恐慌，但机构市场的行为表明，它们对市场波动的反应要审慎得多。# ^* ^4 X: t# G7 Y
技术指标短期内仍然对空头有利，比特币需要重新夺回 98,000 美元才能真正扭转走势。+ E ^4 X) O4 g* t. L
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