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[虚拟币交流]
狗狗币——比特币最新价格反弹后，memecoin 的走势如何？（转）
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随着 BTC 回升至 10.6 万美元以上，狗狗币短期内反弹的可能性增加
# x4 `" F! ?& ?6 |尽管 MVRV 比率为负，但狗狗币的派发阶段仍表明看涨信心较低
0 l& z1 ?6 K/ o0 l狗狗币[狗狗币]上周，该股遭遇挫折，在关键阻力位0.2美元处遭遇阻力。此后，该股已跌至0.17美元的局部低点。周一，比特币[BTC]从 105.6 万美元上涨至 108.4 万美元——撰写本文时涨幅为 2.72%。 B2 _/ s3 u$ }; K( z s# _! Q3 Z1 P
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未来可能还会有更多上涨，但宏观经济形势似乎与上周一样黯淡。此外，中东紧张局势似乎远未得到解决。在这种阴郁的背景下，领先的 memecoin 的价格走势并未改变长期投资者看跌的倾向。1 [; l2 k4 L' @
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AMBCrypto 最近的一份报告强调了人们对山寨币的预期。永续合约市场似乎正在为大事约70%的山寨币交易者明显偏多，而大盘股资产的交易者则有60%偏多。事实上，在上周的暴跌之后，他们原本预期市场将出现复苏。
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) Y2 o% x! h& ]! w应该 DOGE交易员们也转向看涨了吗？1 [) A7 m/ o4 D8 e6 |# M+ J
6 {1 v6 g( l( i, p' j" y狗狗币仍对投资者保持看跌倾向3 z6 J5 Z" d% S& z: p( g
在一个在 X 上发帖，加密货币分析师阿里·马丁内斯观察到，TD Sequential 在狗狗币的 12 小时图上闪现了多个买入信号。然而，正如之前的分析指出的那样，狗狗币的 HTF 倾向仍然看跌.( B) P2 i% P7 _' f( N! ~+ |
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OBV 的抛售压力加大，加上 RSI 的看跌势头和看跌结构，意味着突破 0.2 美元可能极其困难。# R7 ]4 N u. @; O* R
- w8 E+ C: }2 Q0 i仔细观察六个月或更短时间持有狗狗币的投资者行为，可以发现他们正在进行分配阶段。平均币龄（衡量所有狗狗币在其当前地址停留的平均天数）在过去五周多的时间里一直呈下降趋势。, P" Y, r. L+ d6 a
) q9 f, b- F x这一下跌趋势意味着狗狗币正从持有地址中转移，可能是为了出售。过去一个月内，狗狗币流通量激增也凸显了链上活动的活跃。3 d, m- Y- D) j* Q, E2 M/ J
! |; n/ y( I$ L- ~, _与此同时，即使领先的 memecoin 进入了分发阶段，180 天的 MVRV 比率仍然为负。
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这对投资者来说可能是一个令人沮丧的信号。根据TD Sequential和比特币的反弹，交易员或许应该做多，但投资者仍应保持警惕。' u& X: p4 R& n6 n4 {% Q7 `
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