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[虚拟币交流]
比特币有望达到 15.9 万美元——这有可能实现,但前提是(转)
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比特币的周期顶部已从 2 年简单移动平均线的 15 倍稳步下降至 2.65 倍。
0 c4 H, z; Z% p+ x( q尽管周期倍数较低,但 BTC 显示出结构性强势的迹象。
" I! f0 d% \, o9 B9 f' E过去八年里,比特币[BTC]随着市场成熟,其价格行为发生了巨大变化。
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1 M0 T P+ H0 @: Y& X随着每个周期的到来,BTC 的峰值都形成于其 2 年简单移动平均线 (2Y SMA) 的较低倍数,反映出波动性的缩小和更稳定的市场结构。
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从疯狂的集会到缓和的浪潮5 _& M+ k- Z* F' d. Q h8 c9 e4 Q
回顾以往的周期,比特币的早期牛市是爆炸性的,根据阿尔弗莱克塔尔.
D" |* j( z, y
/ w7 X e d, k, P# L这些爆炸性的上涨表明了疯狂的投机性增长,这主要是由薄弱的市场和早期采用者推动的。- u+ c2 o( ~' w
3 V( _9 j1 Q( i& n l! e" |) P, i然而,从2017年开始,随着比特币进入全球市场并被广泛认知,市场开始发生变化。尽管比特币的增长令人瞩目,但却十分低迷。! D, }, ]3 Y9 o
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在此期间,顶部达到 2Y SMA 的 10 倍左右,表明成熟度不断提高,波动性较高。9 C$ ~/ q& L `, ^; {' d5 @; D1 X
3 h2 O7 ^) E2 S/ D0 Y2021年,机构资金大量涌入。然而,周期峰值再次下降,先是触及2年均线的5倍,然后回落至2.65倍左右。7 Q. S, f' t/ k1 d3 v
& v, ?: I& y' A* p; o7 l( {4 G, J7 M9 r这标志着一个结构性转变:比特币不再仅仅是一种交易,它正在成为一种宏观资产。$ g2 m+ h2 ?% J
5 j3 Z% a5 e x0 W2 W2.65 倍仍是标杆——BTC 能否突破 15.9 万美元?" E' L1 o, k) T+ p5 C$ S
在最近的周期中,比特币未能再次突破 2.65 倍的市盈率,表明涨幅收窄,并表明它是一种更加成熟的资产。
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目前,2年期SMA x2.65水平反映了较低的波动性、更高的流动性和成熟的用户基础。该水平目前位于15.9万美元左右。如果BTC大幅上涨,15.9万美元将成为下一个关键阻力位。6 |9 |* T f/ b/ G5 j
1 Y2 t9 d2 P H如上所述,尽管比特币目前正在经历周期顶部的下降,但仍有更大的增长空间。
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看看比特币的 MVRV,它目前在 2.4 左右波动,这表明市场仍处于兴奋区域以下。% H! a1 R; K6 W: y
+ ]# ^$ _5 x7 K. d从历史上看,比特币的峰值出现在3.5到4.0左右。因此,在当前水平上,在周期触顶之前仍有较大的上涨空间。' J0 S4 O2 m: \
/ }5 [# P* v$ {( C- t5 e除此之外,NUPL(净未实现利润/亏损)仍然处于信念/否认区域——尚未陷入贪婪或兴奋之中。
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随着市场行为的成熟,BTC 持有者目前不太可能进行极端获利了结,因为他们预计当前周期的价格会更高。
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! Q1 ]/ e# n5 V1 O& O- Z& m因此,尽管未来的周期不可能再经历 15 倍的激增,但仍有很大的增长空间,比特币作为一种投资更加稳定、波动性更小、更可靠。
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在当前市场环境下,BTC仍有较大上涨空间。如果周期趋势持续,BTC 价格突破 11 万美元,我们有望看到其飙升至 15.9 万美元。: K) ^" Z7 X4 v8 L! G4 y. P
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然而,短期内这种情况不太可能发生,但由于市场尚未达到顶峰,这一水平可能是当前周期市场降温的水平。* ~, @4 @- D# j& P6 G- T* Z
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