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[lastpost] => 2775566 比特币的反弹失败：结构性转变还是暂时的挫折？（转） 1761095155 jackcool1011
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: [: E& g7 G5 f& U: Z; e 美国贸易政策的突变正在使金融市场发生调整，这将对经济产生短期的负面影响，然而，过去一周的市场条件不太可能
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; g- A h0 a2 q# E( c2 s成为未来四年的常态。特朗普ZF正在实施一系列政策措施，这些政策将对 GDP 增长、通货膨胀和贸易赤字产生不同的影响。
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. k; B0 e" I+ q5 a; W+ `; f1 h例如，虽然关税可能会减少经济增长并提高通货膨胀（即造成滞涨），某些类型的放松管制可能会提高增长并降低通货膨胀- Q; x3 p7 {& k8 e
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（即减少滞涨），最终的结果将取决于白宫在这些领域内实施政策议程的程度。
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& W: N! [3 l' t3 e) j `6 r2 d0 n5 ~ 尽管前景存在不确定性，最好的猜测是，美国ZF的政策将在未来 1 至 3 年内导致美元持续疲软和总体高于目标的通胀。
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0 {/ h7 _3 K. C" }% b关税本身可能会减缓增长，但这种影响可能会部分被减税、放松管制和美元贬值所抵消。如果白宫还积极推行其他促进增长的# k; p4 J$ S5 y& v3 `4 Q, m
0 i, ^* B, k/ p, o0 A) K2 s政策，尽管最初受到关税的冲击，GDP 增长仍可能保持相对良好。无论实际增长是否强劲，历史表明，一段时期内持续的通胀
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/ ~) w, k" s3 D3 y压力对比特币和黄金等稀缺大宗商品来说可能是有利的。
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0 r9 f7 A5 r3 m+ U! s, W 此外，就像 20 世纪 70 年代的黄金一样，比特币如今拥有迅速改善的市场结构 — — 这得到了美国ZF政策变化的支持。
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5 G& m" T# F. I2 K今年以来，白宫实施了一系列广泛的政策变化，这些变化应该会支持对数字资产行业的投资，包括撤销一系列诉讼，确保资产
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对传统商业银行的适用性，以及允许受监管的机构（如托管人）提供加密货币服务。这反过来又引发了一波并购活动和其他战
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略投资。新关税对比特币等数字资产估值是一个短期的不利因素，但特朗普ZF的加密货币特定政策一直支持该行业。综合来2 @! [9 V1 D- p' Q
4 h$ ]) \% k/ U6 P8 W看，宏观经济对稀缺大宗商品资产的需求上升和投资者经营环境的改善，可能是未来几年比特币广泛采用的有力组合。9 ]: y+ i9 Z; Z8 ? t0 C
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