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[lastpost] => 2756511 引爆上一轮加密货币大崩盘的男人认罪 面临十余年铁窗生涯（转） 1755046374 九嶷风
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。
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' Z7 @; ^5 q6 Z a! F瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心) G9 g) V$ O; |
+ Y1 h3 U9 z t. ~4 B( _; X衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”8 t& {- B d8 d8 d
美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
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* t, u" Z$ [+ i! |+ k8 z融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。9 ?# t: R. o! G) ~) Z) |/ G
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过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益
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率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。, Z' g$ e7 e( T* l3 b
+ T+ j7 O5 c" H, R6 d- k
然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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* e0 w: J6 ?+ B. c4 \长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更& s" P' h6 w) V0 S7 [. ]* A# ]
1 x+ x6 V: x! V是表示：" F* w# ?: d. y& o/ U" P V7 u
/ |' B. [2 I8 x6 K+ g这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。
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历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币
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特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史4 Y/ g: L; V, q( o+ V9 q; P
' S/ y' ]9 T: V* I! d标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：/ l' U* m: P% Z
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周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。
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: @) c4 M$ s8 X& M& j8 X周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。
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周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债& L. n/ z' V. v/ F' s! u5 F7 o
! v$ F/ A4 n+ M3 p( c收益率冲高回落。7 q6 W% x8 B7 Y5 g
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周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。
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$ e: C% u6 l; r2 P# S9 \! D周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。
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2 `+ `5 C% N, _% _6 p& }7 WLoomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，. g W3 C, E% W5 i
c1 }6 \% ?# ]; P
是的，这正是我们所看到的。"
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& Q3 b0 d$ |8 _* {0 J( j根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去% w. N* F4 Q, I) l9 F
" x/ W t, W$ ]' |1 W# S! n" W年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。7 q$ d+ z% k) F! e4 b+ @
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6 Q! T3 B. w9 F2 U% I$ cRenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"+ e u3 U, d3 P# q/ F( p) e8 ?
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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