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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑1 l( A, c9 e9 ~4 C' s
* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c# d! H! \% A% [" ]
凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k) ?# L# K8 z. _+ b1 _7 w6 K
9 I) O$ ^* ^3 z8 Q, M& ^- G8 L; j7 VG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
* M; C( l3 e" d9 ?4 R& x: F什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
8 A, m! W0 ?9 t0 ~
& Y1 {0 V5 [# m# D! O& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h: i) c2 U9 R" A% N+ ?/ n2 T
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
# R0 a0 i& M( k/ s0 b" s7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s6 d, t2 V) m, o$ ?- `: l; L) r
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
3 N5 f# f" w$ z6 l# m; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d1 \' y$ Q4 x9 a
(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
$ t, k; ]+ U: p! f5 B$ l
3 y0 b8 R2 ]: D3 `(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
7 B# _. d6 i+ R2 L
! l- F9 f5 d' |3 z4 j(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t) ^$ M' e- W/ c! T4 U
7 ?6 U6 j( n7 q. X; `
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 0 S) k8 G' N3 M# @, N
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _0 } w& r. H+ f: \9 M
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
, v# x; g5 Q& `; |5 g: p5 p5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c- P4 u, Z/ l7 ^
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
! o. U7 H _/ n4 o1 |/ l
" p/ d* a% Y! r2 GS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 * i, C v6 r- i0 X/ d3 f c
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
( c' U7 {9 ~( }! T7 M, cS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
) Q6 b8 k* d# ^4 |) X z9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j" h% K3 m$ O0 Y# \# S( @
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \* P5 Q- x/ H; X' `
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v( R% k4 C+ N4 T
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
! q, F4 H' q. B8 a, L* W) ?2 o) B ?7 w. A; r+ v
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
/ L5 g" ]6 t9 [. t+ L8 ^% w
9 E9 P! X. O% [$ Q8 T* V1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
- p$ G. u1 ~' Q0 R3 l. c8 A
# g/ ^6 I1 V- i; r# Y1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 / B( k+ j% f6 x: u& c
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r- F+ i; |( C3 I; m" t
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
' x/ I' A; n# i* ~
, J2 G% V- Z! c类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
! k. E% Z: s5 D3 j* w; |! ]( [1 I5 j1 i* }
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; 0 S& u7 a! i0 G2 L
2 E' ]7 t; k5 V7 F, H- k' _! iS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s! P4 z% @( H: x7 Z j" u
; m' V% T, u, P% O
8 o% W7 ^8 H- Y& v2 B. W, S5 qS3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
( l+ n: G) _$ `8 u4 e, U1 A6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
) j% N0 e$ T& W6 d( |$ ~S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
4 p |4 U$ p! M" R7 o- S; ]* I% x: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~9 j q% B! s3 e5 p* m3 e; k8 S
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o0 z* X" Q8 C- D7 V
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \( D/ n+ j6 s- }5 _' t. h( { k
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 & M- g+ y) T( A% Z9 Y
) q( ], k9 L T& t& Y9 Q# k& r- B! d& a$ q6 }, H
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 & }9 {5 f" |+ f
' t. x4 J( X) f, U4 L5 C* H Q- [F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 1 C1 F& X/ i" }: x
+ F; V# X8 k/ N' ~4 j4 I于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
0 }$ g7 z' S7 _, J9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
# E5 G$ t3 O7 Z* zG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
6 ]9 \! O. T% b8 c4 M# |: a8 d0 K+ D$ n) P# X# M& o4 N" h& L5 x# q1 y) z/ F' l
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
" M& ?* C* k$ ]( s' m* ^' k8 P& F4 p* _/ t5 r3 B
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]/ w" k, O! S* A% T5 Y
7 X8 | L$ l) B) I3 ^+ T* {/ \' X当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \, f9 s+ g/ Q; c( o
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i2 a' z- o* o( C9 j( U/ i
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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