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[虚拟币交流]
华尔街顶级量化机构 Jump Trading 杀入预测市场，散户时代结束了？（转）
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; ^2 p3 x& q Q6 U4 K8 P据彭博社报道，全球顶级量化交易公司 Jump Trading 将通过向两大头部预测市场平台 Kalshi 和 Polymarket 提供流动性，换取少量股权。3 z" _* h4 W) w* e+ i ^! d
, s% d g" y* `! y8 l! r据悉，其与 Kalshi 的协议涉及固定股权份额，而在 Polymarket 的持股将随其在美国业务提供的交易容量动态增长。
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) K+ W" p v9 p( {% n6 p D对于 Jump Trading 而言，这笔股权潜在价值不菲。此前报道称，Kalshi 估值约 110 亿美元，Polymarket 约 90 亿美元，且赛道仍在高速扩张。9 Q% i4 L, E& p( q
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Jump 或将动用其超过 20 人的专属团队，提供专业做市服务，以提升平台交易体验并捕获长期潜在收益。
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1、预测市场的流动性瓶颈
8 N# s: c# }1 V- D( o Z& X8 E; a一直以来，流动性是预测市场增长的关键瓶颈。
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Kalshi 和 Polymarket 作为当前两大头部玩家，在早期阶段都面临类似挑战：热门事件期间交易量激增，但非热门合约往往深度浅薄、价差较大，用户大额挂单容易出现显著滑点，甚至难以成交。9 \( r* e9 m$ m& G9 ]' f
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其中，Kalshi 在 2024 年引入专业机构 Susquehanna International Group （SIG）作为其主要机构做市商。
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: K! ` A: F( o5 ?) LSIG 设立了专注事件合约的交易部门，其作为老牌期权巨头具备专业算法和持续挂单能力，让 Kalshi 的交易体验明显改善，尤其在体育和经济数据类合约上表现突出。! s* d% m( v) p! z1 w$ R
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除此之外，Kalshi 还通过内部关联交易实体提供部分对侧流动性，以稳定定价和填补空缺。
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同时，平台推出流动性激励计划，向合格参与者发放现金奖励、降低手续费并放宽仓位限制，进一步吸引算法玩家和大户。7 j4 f* }& `* p) Q( w* W
1 N% l# K% W z- `( W7 JPolymarket 的情况则更具加密原生特征。作为基于 Polygon 的链上订单簿平台，它早期主要依靠去中心化的激励机制聚集流动性。8 T' e, [) f. ?4 k T
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官方文档称，该平台通过 Maker Rebates 程序每天以 USDC 形式返还部分手续费，吸引自动化做市机器人和独立流动性提供者。这些算法玩家在新市场或热门合约上积极挂单，赚取价差和返还收益。
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不过这种模式也带来碎片化和不稳定性，比如当事件热度消退时，做市机器人主动撤单，导致价差迅速扩大，深度也随即快速萎缩。
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" l1 y( e" S- ^: }) H此外，Polymarket 还尝试过内部做市团队和社区驱动的 LP 机制，但整体而言，其流动性呈现出爆款事件深度充足，平时则依赖散户和算法的短期逐利行为。
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: `5 Q9 E! g5 L; d1 h9 [两大平台在这一阶段的共同点在于，流动性高度依赖少数关键参与者和激励驱动的散户力量。 |
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Jump Trading这种巨头进来做市，以后预测市场的小散怕是更难玩了 |
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量化大佬下场，散户还怎么玩？这波感觉要被割得更狠了... |
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Jump 这波介入，感觉预测市场以后更卷了，小散得谨慎点 |
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