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[lastpost] => 2785722 比特币5大信号决定本轮牛熊走向（转） 1764565940 小钱儿
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[虚拟币交流]
贝莱德斥资1.25亿美元购买比特币为何令比特币交易员感到不安？（转）
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加密货币市场正面临压力。' V# N1 b: f' n O- |
: D0 M# ]) ~ Z截至发稿时，比特币 (比特币) 在未能守住 94,000 美元上方后下跌 2.6%，至 89,596 美元左右的低点。与此同时，以太坊 [以太坊] 也出现类似走势，下跌 3.72% 至 3,038 美元。3 P `. Q8 J" Z. f$ k6 J
4 Z3 M4 Y- F1 J/ d此次剧烈回调加剧了散户投资者的恐慌情绪。然而，在恐慌背后，机构巨头们却在增加投资，加倍下注。& x G1 b2 i0 c* Z
6 [/ H& E/ A) J2 ~7 C6 r' S贝莱德存入了比特币和以太坊
5 [1 m$ Z/ Y' X# v12月5日，贝莱德已存1.255亿美元BTC以及价值 250 万美元的以太坊到 Coinbase。7 q* ~( ]" v6 k) x0 {( W
, d( G' ]$ h8 ?9 C& }+ {7 L( G8 q分析师泰德·皮洛斯警告说，这可能预示着机构抛售潮的到来，并可能加剧市场的不稳定性。9 H/ h0 k6 c0 a# h" q- E$ @0 ^
9 r+ E; S K5 Y6 O6 j4 ?, t" ?9 w他说：
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6 i- W4 ~( k* ?/ j! p" G! Q* P“销量还会继续增长吗？”
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7 d8 _, k2 y! q1 G# t4 D3 t$ j因此，问题来了：目前的下跌是进一步抛售的信号，还是仅仅是精明的投资者在悄悄地为这轮由 ETF 驱动的周期设定了新的、更高的底线？
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此举为何引发担忧？9 K1 z. I1 K0 o8 S. n" v B. @ o: i
比特币近期价格下跌，未能守住 94,000 美元的关口，这不可避免地将人们的注意力集中在大型机构的动向上，特别是贝莱德数百万美元的比特币存款。ETH到 Coinbase。
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在加密货币市场中，向交易所的大额转账很快就会被视为看跌信号，主要是因为存在清算风险，因为这会增加可出售的供应量。
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由于 ETF 资金流出和宏观经济的不确定性已经加剧了市场的紧张情绪，市场对此类波动反应强烈。
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因此，如果机构真的进行清算，新增供应可能会压低价格，过去的一些案例也加剧了这种担忧，这些案例表明，大额存款先于价格调整出现。/ n4 s# l* c: I% S
! R+ _- N; P7 z! a' ]对于散户投资者而言，看到大型基金将资产转移到交易平台通常预示着即将出现问题。" g6 E: v& x, B) D, S) T; q
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然而，这种恐慌忽略了一个关键点：管理数十亿美元的 ETF 通常需要进行与即将出售无关的例行转移。% v( l' D" y- L4 d0 a W. G/ V w
+ C5 p" F& @4 \5 ]* G* n$ P还会有更多销售吗？
8 d' m" l7 i' p) w( `然而，仅凭定金并不能自动转化为后续销售。
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对于像贝莱德这样的 ETF 发行商而言，此类基金变动通常反映了日常运营需求、托管调整、赎回处理、再平衡或其他内部工作流程。+ B5 E; q/ i7 L: t
6 v* R7 U0 D4 }) z z! f
贝莱德依靠 Coinbase Prime 进行机构托管和大宗交易，这体现了一种系统性的策略，而不是恐慌性抛售。' z" F4 n& }2 P5 v9 O, T- t
1 |: Y3 t# b% y7 [通常情况下，这种大额转账是 ETF 创建和赎回过程中的常规步骤，旨在保持价格一致。
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z' d7 k9 L h" \7 N即便如此，技术指标仍然表明短期前景看跌。( k9 i! e, @/ ]4 e+ m
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截至撰稿时，BTC 的相对强弱指数 (RSI) 和移动平均收敛/发散指标 (MACD) 均低于其中性水平，证实了短期至中期内抛售动能的主导地位。+ u) N3 V! m5 a6 |2 {
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来源：Trading View5 Z; }3 C( h& r2 B; C, g0 W" d) l
( \; u! D% P! b; j" w9 D) G要彻底扭转市场局面，从“熊市主导”转变为“牛市突破”，比特币必须成功突破并守住 98,000 美元的关键阻力位。: e5 B; N2 @, s6 }5 R
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在此之前，市场技术面依然低迷，容易受到波动影响。
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最后想说的话
9 n% ?% x" X+ L+ D/ ]5 u6 _( y6 ]2 x零售市场出现恐慌，但机构市场的行为表明，它们对市场波动的反应要审慎得多。
" E3 V' T, T9 t5 `" B; F7 ~" z技术指标短期内仍然对空头有利，比特币需要重新夺回 98,000 美元才能真正扭转走势。
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