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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。) g! Z& w7 | K2 S+ n; \# c5 f
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但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。/ q5 W+ A+ q6 K) z& Q" R3 e
( a6 P% }- \& R% k: g5 }9 [Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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: C$ ~+ D5 ^' Y7 P: |( r; H' t开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
6 p1 z, n( W' s2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。
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来源：Alphractal
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。& C& ?& I( E% r/ h- E
S2 a d" J! ^/ R/ ]3 B尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。
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) [9 \. a& b8 c; k! Q事情变得有趣了* T6 }+ ^6 m. F2 ~4 I( D
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。4 p" K0 E, W. [: p/ l% O3 H% e# q
& w- R$ J4 w, b3 u- v" V) L' m来源：X- C% [9 E- }# t
& I$ x; T7 e8 x, {2 z根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。: |' g" q5 _( J5 O) K
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BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。' e5 M9 f6 `$ R5 V2 b! X+ V. X R
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。; e6 E3 [. P2 a
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随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。
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% q; \$ h4 |# w7 n, @空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
; v/ x6 A4 }, r8 x5 T经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。, _) y2 ^4 n3 w+ j8 T( Q) S" _
4 W. N! A- {' o* E来源：TradingView' l/ r" F% f# ^9 w3 W [
% X! O! l" H% w; S' \* _日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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; Q3 |, R; \0 s+ j( E" w然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。# T) G5 C) A: l0 S" }2 A
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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