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[lastpost] => 2749387 比特币市值超亚马逊,机构拼命买,散户却“已读不回” 1752942675 天策-瑶娥
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[虚拟币交流]
宏观 FUD 如何影响比特币并引发“不同”的山寨币季(转)
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最近,在比特币日益占据主导地位的背景下,山寨币一直在苦苦挣扎
) J |6 m9 K4 v1 `, ?2 F+ \新型的山寨币季节最终能否扭转比特币的势头?
6 n2 M: M" q& P7 I Y" |" a! J六月历来是一个比特币[BTC]比特币 (BTC.D) 确立了其主导地位,今年也不例外。事实上,BTC.D 已攀升至 65% 以上,创下新的周期高点。
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. b& l& f7 m5 Y1 S, I' U然而,今年地缘ZZ紧张局势又增添了新的变数。通常情况下,人们会预期资本会流入投机性资产,以利用短期波动。然而,BTC.D 却一路走高。
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0 p! Y$ x9 B! f. {0 H) J5 L# O这是市场的转折点吗?宏观的 FUD 进一步巩固了比特币的避险属性,而这一属性曾经只存在于山寨币?
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随着资本整合至 BTC,山寨季指标下跌, `3 E3 X2 l5 t# Z& K
要了解比特币和山寨币之间的关系,我们需要退一步来看。
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在 2022 年熊市期间,一系列连锁冲击导致 BTC 暴跌,导致年度净亏损 65%,并以 16,531 美元的价格收盘。
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+ l9 O& i. D3 G# K: y" K有趣的是,同年第二季度以太坊的[ETH]相对于比特币而言,ETH 的表现达到峰值。ETH 吸引了资金轮动,甚至在 8 月中旬引发突破,在此期间表现优于 BTC。
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简而言之,包括美联储大幅加息和 LUNA/UST 崩溃在内的宏观不利因素促使投资者寻求另类资产的对冲,短暂地为以太坊等山寨币带来了优势。
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{& ~2 c4 ^. {2 Z* C5 x" b0 y三年后,形势发生了逆转。- z/ L3 L5 S/ U! f, D, \
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这 altseason指标处于两年来的最低点,山寨币的月度损失达到两位数,而比特币的主导地位已飙升至四年来的最高点——与此同时,宏观压力继续考验牛市的信念。
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( w0 x8 D7 f1 q发生了什么变化?机构资本.0 n& ]" ?% ]& Z/ q# [/ e* R
: O% [( I+ { g! I r" q( l3 a大型投资者如今主导着市场流动。而且,他们对BTC的偏好,将其作为宏观对冲工具和流动性锚,使其主导地位持续上升。8 b8 n) c& M( T
$ d; U4 w- W1 V( c5 r零售业也开始迎头赶上。随着比特币表现出更强的资本韧性,许多人选择将资金投入BTC,以长期稳定性,而不是追逐高贝塔山寨币以获得短期投机回报。, T2 j, [( h, B8 a/ _9 O/ X
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因此,只要市场保持波动且宏观风险依然存在,山寨币轮换就可能继续处于观望状态。
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山寨币第 2.0 季 – 建立在实用性而非炒作之上
$ L8 ] J, c) v3 \7 n/ y) c* ~$ m# n我们可能正走向一个截然不同的山寨币季,它不再受“炒作”驱动,而是真正的实用性驱动。这一次,像以太坊这样强大的 Layer 1 链,索拉纳[SOL],XRP 可能会引领潮流。/ m) d7 [7 D* m# z/ S
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这些网络不仅仅是与比特币竞争。它们正在构建新数字经济的基础,并引领风险加权资产 (RWA)、DePIN 和稳定币等趋势。
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XRP新的稳定币,RLUSD就是一个很好的例子。它已经以 4.28 亿美元的市值跻身前 20 名,并且正在进军价值 2560 亿美元的庞大稳定币市场。. L, l# o0 R0 D- t* Z# Y+ J% `
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尽管如此,要让真正的山寨币市场腾飞,市场需要一个像 NFT 或模因币是过去的事了。话虽如此,我们已经看到市场行为发生了明显的转变。' J. [9 y t, Q' z* ^ q
6 H! S0 Z/ @3 A; _; x% N' H! F/ i9 c在机构资金流动的推动下,比特币的主导地位并未减弱。然而,在表面之下,山寨币正转向现实世界的应用。而且,这种转变最终可能会让局面重新对他们有利。
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