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[lastpost] => 2813295 英伟达发布开源代理计划后,AI代币价格上涨,CoinDesk 20 指数超出预期。(转) 1773233684 爱美的女人
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势1 F- n% \! ]5 T9 x" d) H
E7 F7 f( @# l7 _$ T4 r t过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。
2 f0 @5 U2 y- s8 t* S) I2 |6 D T+ `! M7 o
PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。
" ~4 ^8 V# I) P5 Z6 I3 A# L
$ Y: {5 `, o7 d# D$ K7 d6 wCPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
* o" a& n- | r0 D
, O& m. E/ h0 \7 F; g2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期( @6 E; B. I; ?* R
3 G9 L6 K9 m* D- A" X; W当前持仓成本:
$ a" y! U' @+ P0 |, J" c2 b
7 x# v- X7 U- K' N, y机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;# L3 L/ `; `* z+ P6 D n/ j; P
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微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;
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ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。
5 V5 w/ e2 j ~/ p0 C$ P+ h9 z* T6 I2 r" U" [" K+ ^
比特币价值回归:
0 k0 W `5 N5 @. S
1 V @1 Y- o4 O3 J2 j市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。
- c1 `4 {$ b$ r0 K: E! C+ ?. m3 t: W4 n+ h- U5 x: b. N* r3 S! T
随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。
v- P2 F3 `3 x: W4 g; I
2 H. s; y; ^# e% g- U加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。; S$ n; \! O6 J' U2 J
6 J; I8 ?' l7 V7 X' ?3. 市场热点与反弹情况) F8 T8 z( p0 z- J2 ~- c$ o* k
% \% p G$ M' M0 a; lETH:
2 P0 n0 K w4 J! W6 b& r
* h! L5 Z/ h4 K+ Z% v1 ?3 t5 l虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。
+ v8 W: y" S, [6 F6 Q
$ g, O. [3 M' K* d机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。" G7 V. A' g$ v. ]4 F. \7 X& [
: Q0 P7 m* U$ V2 l
BTC:
8 _7 M: c& C( W# A1 r2 `5 ?! O2 m% q" T; \
尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。/ U& R4 d+ r, W2 W9 x
) J# q1 v6 ?/ W
如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。
& u4 ~! @+ ]% U7 L* Z" |* j. h8 P* T/ \9 b. a" D6 c
SOL与XRP:
& \3 }# i4 x8 g+ e1 ^- \+ X4 \* o" o' k' y; v0 `/ k5 Y* p
SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
/ O9 q0 a, n7 U8 E7 d3 Y+ n9 J: d- I* J8 w* L
XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。
5 D7 Y+ `0 j! _2 X* c1 t6 t1 B. e9 T
2 c9 t# C& Q; d4 \其他热点项目:
4 I1 m+ T0 E/ j7 v/ d' z, H, G/ h( _+ r" N% P! d" p
涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。$ ~2 b. K F6 u$ e( Q/ }/ D0 E
) s1 o3 h. s3 s; _. w
山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。- |( Z$ [0 q6 B9 D4 Y; E
( l! m2 |$ a! s% w) i4. AI赛道与新兴项目% M. z ^+ o' E7 ~8 N9 U! c
2 y+ l, U) B k7 l- u- w& UAI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。; u5 T) a n% O+ f2 `
* S/ `3 } H* W Y
蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。
, g( a t. y+ m q
/ ^& E( @+ r2 ~# \新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
! \5 I1 b. j! A% _8 ]9 T7 n- D" e
4 o8 x+ E4 B4 S$ z5 s9 G( C市场展望
9 g. z( I; Y% t ^; m, [( ~0 ?# k: A; v# L- G/ g
随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。: D5 m4 ]1 \" Y* {( P
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当前离线
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