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[lastpost] => 2778530 比特币在经历2018年以来的首次十月下跌后走低(转) 1762177121 人生如赌
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随着价格的整合,比特币的需求已降至近几周的最低水平。然而,交易所比特币供应的减少使得价格大幅下跌成为可能。
/ F$ i9 @8 Q; L7 z( \3 w自8月5日从下跌中恢复以来,比特币[BTC]的交易区间在56K-62K美元之间。' z% n$ M) ^( g }( v5 _ F0 X( a; a
6 b, v" |9 `) m- M+ S, k% N
自8月8日以来,价格没有跌破或超过这一区间,这表明可能会出现盘整或市场不确定性。
3 N" R+ t7 q% g* q4 [. i4 N, ^% b* Z* \ T: I1 f' Z
阻止该区域以上出现重大突破的因素之一是比特币需求增长疲软,根据CryptoQuant的数据,比特币需求仍处于较低水平。最近几周,这甚至变成了负面的。0 K' u; d! Y! X1 ~; f
4 b9 x7 S' s: q2 R% X3 `
2024年4月,比特币的需求达到了三年来的峰值,恰逢比特币减半事件。然而,自那以后,它已降至今年的最低水平。' a/ N# E, _3 P! t
! \' Y$ u7 z/ ]% |" e那么,为什么比特币的需求会下降呢?
9 \& b, H9 W. @) X1 M, l( f, Y& F$ }4 r( G2 o
观察ETF和鲸鱼活动
+ h& Q1 G7 ?3 ]分析指出,流入现货比特币ETF的资金正在枯竭。3月,随着BTC飙升至历史高点,比特币ETF的平均每日购买量为12500 BTC。( Q. c1 j1 v0 f6 x
% |0 v- I' H' E; F上周降至1300 BTC。
) c" ?4 r' v2 Z# R
O. t. ]! D7 k9 y( L# m, w$ r从SoSoValue上可以看出,自8月9日以来,流入现货比特币ETF的资金总额一直低于1亿美元大关。虽然这些产品拥有超过550亿美元的净资产,但需要购买活动来提振整体需求。
" k: ~) [ z2 K9 Z7 V& u x# c
6 I r9 t- e' w# J6 H& t鲸鱼似乎也在减少他们的比特币股份。30天平均鲸鱼持有量已从2月份的6%降至1%。这是自2021年2月以来每个CryptoQuant的最快下降。* E5 c- h- @7 y% v" `
' L! W0 @7 {8 k4 B! A# @0 d鲸鱼在支持比特币价格增长方面发挥着至关重要的作用。鲸鱼持有量的减少表明整个市场普遍看跌。1 i/ h- o& p3 d. j
5 N C% l! V' M
Santiment的数据进一步证实了鲸鱼活动的减少,该数据显示,自3月以来,持有1000至10000枚比特币的比特币地址大幅下降。3 s7 }" ]% c+ l' J3 ^/ |. A
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尽管鲸鱼活动放缓,但长期比特币持有者增加了头寸。这些持有者一直在以每月约391000 BTC的速度增加他们的BTC持有量。$ l, y# M; d% r; f( u
2 U3 A) d0 t! ~$ U6 \比特币会突破其区间吗?
5 H, S2 v+ ^. A随着对比特币需求的放缓,人们不禁要问,比特币是否会突破5.6万至6.2万美元的区间。对链上数据的深入研究描绘了一幅严峻的画面。) x) Q& G1 N5 V" a
- Y9 ?. L, {# | N3 C根据IntoTheBlock的数据,超过300万个地址以这个价格范围购买了比特币。以这些价格买入的新投资者并没有获得可观的利润。- C: Q* X+ ]% _+ b
8 `3 l7 I' V8 {: K因此,突破62000美元将面临抛售压力,因为他们急于获利。% ]7 d' o# ~/ P/ ?3 H' }
6 T% u7 s9 K' G2 e技术指标也无法证明突破的必要性。相对强弱指数(RSI)也保持区间震荡,购买势头没有显著飙升。
( _4 f8 U) v1 l$ z+ w" ^2 F& m8 q5 P
位于积极区域的Awesome Oscillator显示出上升趋势。然而,短直方图条指向可能减弱的上升趋势。0 F4 t5 d9 L7 U! ?3 A+ _
然而,由于交易所比特币供应量下降,短期内不太可能出现低于当前范围的急剧下降趋势。% u9 q- F; c9 t
4 P/ s E: n8 \根据CryptoQuant的数据,交易所供应比率在过去一年中急剧下降。因此,尽管需求明显较低,但外汇供应也较低,从而降低了大幅回调的风险。
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