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+ _6 U6 H8 W! P; i, e加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为+ s% q, N' l/ M4 O: Q0 Y
DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，9 M2 X; N1 ?+ r5 T% e
衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。7 F+ L- O6 s; {& ^# f
一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.05 p/ u2 I- j! h2 m, O6 g
BTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。+ }, F$ `2 G4 n% F: Y2 D
Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：
1 f7 |4 h' f4 X) L2024年4月第四次减半* Y) y& }$ W( y" p% r: |
机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
: U$ E/ p* `1 W3 @可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)
6 e# K2 r I" J, x针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。8 B$ f; ?# d' ?: X4 G9 M% j( ?
二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务
7 Y) y, X9 N2 t! |friend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。. t& [" \! Z1 E! K5 L( `" R
Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠
) S# r( @# e' d3 G: Q0 o' T诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。
2 ]7 \5 i' @7 `2 H* n三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁
1 _' Q2 S+ D. J; D% W! ~ j) q除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
1 x) Y- Z/ W' Y7 z3 _& G" u金融(TradFi)产品。
|) [( a$ p& j; ~1 U; d如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨
) D4 P; E# ^0 M3 i L) V2 J( @链桥」的项目。
, o5 i! G0 {+ H& m7 I$ g6 Q四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉
8 X9 D0 Z$ w1 `模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
: e: f' ^7 z7 U+ q6 J等。% ?! {2 R6 d' F3 }8 X* f/ F' k
Pantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用- U3 s# O, S, ?. w
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。/ c5 G/ g x) b
五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN% c! f7 s0 J2 R+ H3 S$ _
Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位! G3 K# b( _, a* D- N }
数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。
3 Z; q! V3 k4 m ?Pantera点名了几个项目：" H$ a, L& a( q6 s% |9 z8 ^
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图
! B6 h% K( E# B' K3 `3 MBittensor：去中心化机器学习平台' e) e% t1 Y3 N9 x
Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品
/ i% R3 G4 c* s: LThe Graph：链上知识图谱计划' P' r; `/ R; O4 J- ~
Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游
+ a0 j- q, @& q% U L% B六、小型公链需专注特定应用! Z1 l5 {1 A3 { m4 W( K
Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚
Q; g7 S1 B5 V( [至能直接与L2竞争。
; `5 N8 D0 H1 @5 ^3 r也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。
) n* }3 Z6 a( ^7 T) P6 T/ @( x+ YPantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地
2 J3 e7 z$ R; M5 v0 d( Z* u0 b成为「应用链」。7 I+ z6 s4 X, G$ v7 |, [
事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。: b2 r6 L# L; ?3 t* J! a
7 ^: X/ `1 e9 ]$ _; f9 j3 j# \
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