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[lastpost] => 2777858 比特币价格今日下跌的主要原因，未来还会继续下跌吗？（转） 1761919718 jackcool1011
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为何USDT兑换人民币会出现溢价？
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在人民币用户领域，USDT并不存在兑换法币的场内市场，而只有场外交易，由于场外交易的高度分散化，对于Tether公司来说，显然无法找到有效的做市手段将汇率维持在1:1。任何价格的偏离，都是因为供需平衡发生了变化，而USDT的价值偏离美元兑换人民币的官方汇率，则有两种可能。 3 H; m; `" p9 h# }" I5 K; n$ J1 \* @
其一是场外交易的供需平衡被打破，供不应求，卖家满足不了巨大的市场需求，因而USDT产生了溢价； 其二是场内加密货币的供求平衡被打破，人们正在将加密货币换成稳定币，从而使USDT产生了溢价。 2 m7 a7 v& x0 K; {- p# ?; G8 a
无论发生以上哪种情况，都需要Tether公司增大USDT的供应，以保证汇率稳定。目前，市场处于极度恐慌情绪，许多人急着将加密货币换成稳定币避险，因而造成了usdt兑换人民币的巨幅溢价，最高达到7.8。
# l1 Q8 l$ |0 s! K9 B4 h为何无法通过搬砖搬平
! i4 [/ s% y) n. {+ x0 V( C2 ? 如果USDT场外兑换人民币的汇率相比官方汇率溢价3%，在外汇领域，属于巨大的套利空间，用户可以用美元从Tether直接购买USDT，在人民币场外市场卖出，将获得的人民币换成美元，如此反复操作。但事实上并没有人这么做，从而导致溢价一直存在，主要有两个原因。
& v/ b3 y2 v% l7 o0 D8 j第一，外汇管制的原因。目前我国居民每人每年度只有5万美元的换汇额度，且向外汇款有诸多限制，导致基本上无法直接向Tether购买USDT；
" ~* R8 u' ?0 K1 c6 d第二，即使解决了换汇的问题，当用户将搬砖的USDT卖出，换取大量的人民币时，有一定概率收到来路不明的资金，导致银行账号被冻或是更麻烦的事，得不偿失。 2 e! i) y. d8 F5 A& \6 v
目前USDT的溢价刚好伴随了BTC价格从60000美金的下跌，因而此次溢价的产生，可能更多地来自于场内玩家将加密货币换成稳定币，而不是场外人民币玩家的跑步进场。比如神鱼DeFi视频中某大户DeFi挖fei超过10亿美金的充值，预计不仅是自有稳定币，还从外部借了许多USDT。
8 |8 a7 Z9 i# u+ a* d 不过也有一些OTC商表示，目前场外新人进入较多，尤其是Filecoin非常火爆出圈；以及传统OTC商遭到ZF严查打击。这也可能是造成U溢价的原因之一。 |
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