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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
1 F% L) C2 H# H+ \( M5 I. x3 D* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c
2 k2 d U2 @ B4 D* K凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k6 R) N- e( I0 E' x( C) o' a+ P/ C
) u5 I2 K# A S# _3 ~+ m
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)& b0 D* ?$ a8 P8 Q# v0 d
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [- X" K/ n5 y S- v2 o$ F6 h
/ q" Y7 }2 W* B& ]. E* s& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h1 Z- b7 c. u! {) C- q4 e
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ : O; K% p: m5 G+ A1 \- O9 h3 ?% {
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
# q" X. \9 S" S! I做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `) V8 S7 x# p5 A a& a3 ~6 }
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
8 I& W( r# s. T! F: |(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
# W# ?( q5 B% E. Z, L( m4 c; Y3 y3 p u* z7 u$ f+ e
(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 " r/ ]: H d7 d# @
# q+ S) r5 R* h) G/ [4 A* @(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t; |4 {# l% K1 {# ^1 N" e( k9 I
7 _! ]/ P. Y3 F7 f. [4 i
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
- K6 @4 f' |; }, m- U2 D, d- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _: i; I0 `. A9 I5 G! S2 f
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
: B3 L- f9 r& y5 W2 x) a5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
; z; P7 i# n3 i/ X" T' i" @S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 ) [1 Q {/ k! |( K
; \& p5 D; R" M$ l$ A+ j
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
- C0 T% s. l, i9 _0 R, n% B% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s" |" e. X" Q% e7 Y+ V, x& Z v
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 # M$ r d7 k K* U7 R
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j4 Z- f: o8 J3 ^1 [& |6 y
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
& |9 E, k/ Q& @. S8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v+ }6 z7 I8 \* R2 |
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 . p& {. w$ [! ~7 [" t/ v6 M/ k. ?
6 s5 r) i3 }( ^6 ]! v. i9 r! }& N
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
2 h7 t* P0 |! T. b
! n0 T" P% T# P6 M! Y4 T1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q% z; p4 d" O2 A \, S$ `6 t% ?
& d) f& g, J( S9 K* x/ O/ x8 U8 D1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
" x( J. |+ d$ H5 d, q, a: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
" V. V f+ Z8 e6 G) SS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
4 H! N& L$ m7 e. B( F5 V
3 m" G. ^& O4 g& G类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
9 E/ p0 P1 N/ s# F$ A# O0 ^) d, n6 o& H" l. U" s0 w( O
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
4 q0 j/ x3 P% K! |
% Q( V2 b. X5 X: Z8 |, R, u/ V, xS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
9 |/ @& U# }9 O: ~% a; O' l7 N! Y% N1 u; m' V% T, u, P% O$ b& r, ]2 Y& k
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
/ P" [/ @0 t+ |( X1 [6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
9 R5 g) B9 }" P6 g2 CS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
6 F; e( J6 b0 q1 X9 A( ]: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
% w: M; B& m* Z' G# j2 Z3 o( b" i% z(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
5 q* ?, G! d; m* z' H+ g" j5 o* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \" b1 ]$ O* \4 i" m
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
9 H* ? u. h3 C; [6 T, A) q( ], k9 L T& t
* J4 i; b% E$ Q5 R( i, k4 b/ ~: S( oB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
! m) Q) F9 z0 \% z/ @& `" W& U: l) E) O/ M; o+ j
F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 5 k- o# Q9 d# w
f$ Q. i! E7 }! @1 X) z于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
# K( `+ X5 ~8 N7 q' n9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
% X2 d0 R/ ?5 E7 a# D$ v% _$ bG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M2 H* P, O# V M; S1 ~' C& _' B
+ D$ n) P# X# M8 ]! N8 ^& U$ M) y5 X5 Y$ F4 @5 S) R
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 ) l# N, d* f( z( B6 c. a) n6 T/ @" k
( z: y A$ S' l6 b
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]1 G9 E/ ^9 c* Y# E& N5 X
5 u/ _) s0 u1 O0 {' K8 J; j# v
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
: N; u) i% d9 ~. ~6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i" u; X* ?& _, H- i
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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