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[lastpost] => 2753525 比特币今天又是下跌了啊 1754145763 爱美的女人
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[虚拟币交流]
实际价格理论认为 123,000 美元并非比特币的最高价（转）
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在上涨至 123,000 美元的历史新高后，比特币价格此后有所放缓由于抛售肆虐市场，市场一片混乱。一如既往，这引发了人们的猜测，认为该数字资产已触及价格区间顶部，预示着牛市的终结。然而，使用实际价格理论，显示比特币价格在过去一年中持续上涨的幅度牛市与之前的周期高点相比，本轮反弹可能还远未结束。2 C5 d4 s5 U# n: h
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比特币周期顶部如何衡量先前实现的价格
0 M* y- i) ~8 |; b加密货币分析师 Gert van Lagen 在 X（前身为 Twitter）上表示分享一个有趣的历史趋势表明，比特币价格尚未达到其周期峰值。这一趋势与加密货币的实际价格有关，它相对于实际价格上涨多少倍才能标志着新的周期峰值。+ Q& k! q0 D4 W
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范拉根以之前的牛市为例解释道比特币一直上涨数倍在真正标志着新的周期顶峰之前，其实际价格已经上涨了8倍。2011年，在市场触顶之前，其价格相对于实际价格上涨了8倍，而且这种趋势在接下来的十年里一直持续。
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8 v6 y6 \- r& |! Q快进到 2013 年，比特币价格将再次出现类似的反弹这次，价格上涨了6倍，才达到新的峰值。四年后，即2017年开始的下一轮牛市中，再次出现了类似的趋势。BTC价格在触顶之前上涨了5倍。* s1 r7 y8 e% j3 H+ Z9 j, V1 j
2021 年，比特币价格再次证明，在触顶之前，它总是会波动几倍于其实际价格。尽管 2020 年新冠疫情导致市场崩盘，但比特币仍然能够反弹至其实际价格的 4 倍，并在 2021 年触及 69,000 美元的高点。9 j! ?' a6 |4 r
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鉴于这一趋势，预计 BTC 也将跟随其上涨，并实现其价格的数倍在顶部进入之前然而，回顾历史表现，每次牛市过后，实际价格上涨的幅度都会有所下降。因此，与2021年的4倍相比，BTC的市盈率可能会有所降低。
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C7 x1 S- T% o' _. b根据Glassnode的数据，比特币目前的成交价为51,000美元。这意味着到目前为止，价格已经上涨了2倍。但随着过去几轮牛市的趋势BTC 的涨幅有可能达到其实际价格的 3 倍。如果真是这样，那么比特币达到 15 万美元的可能性仍然很高。此外，如果这一实际价格理论成立，则意味着牛市远未结束，加密货币仍有上涨空间。1 a' p3 y) ~, H/ ]: \& m7 D |
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