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[lastpost] => 2781160 谁在抛售比特币？为什么比特币价格下跌？（转） 1763099389 whywhy
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[虚拟币交流]
宏观 FUD 如何影响比特币并引发“不同”的山寨币季（转）
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最近，在比特币日益占据主导地位的背景下，山寨币一直在苦苦挣扎8 `% i+ l+ |" p- z4 p. v2 j1 J
新型的山寨币季节最终能否扭转比特币的势头？
( n& ?6 N! e- N: z$ u3 Q六月历来是一个比特币[BTC]比特币 (BTC.D) 确立了其主导地位，今年也不例外。事实上，BTC.D 已攀升至 65% 以上，创下新的周期高点。; M& a* @" v) F/ [$ M9 N: T
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然而，今年地缘ZZ紧张局势又增添了新的变数。通常情况下，人们会预期资本会流入投机性资产，以利用短期波动。然而，BTC.D 却一路走高。
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& i5 V9 Y+ v& i3 q0 Y8 D) Z3 G/ x这是市场的转折点吗？宏观的 FUD 进一步巩固了比特币的避险属性，而这一属性曾经只存在于山寨币?
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随着资本整合至 BTC，山寨季指标下跌
, k% b/ M- F2 ]( H" R) ?要了解比特币和山寨币之间的关系，我们需要退一步来看。) j; V2 n- Z l9 R$ {# u/ |
- `4 y# s$ }) R; y& i: P1 Z在 2022 年熊市期间，一系列连锁冲击导致 BTC 暴跌，导致年度净亏损 65%，并以 16,531 美元的价格收盘。
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有趣的是，同年第二季度以太坊的[ETH]相对于比特币而言，ETH 的表现达到峰值。ETH 吸引了资金轮动，甚至在 8 月中旬引发突破，在此期间表现优于 BTC。1 Q% P% O8 b0 f$ n F
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简而言之，包括美联储大幅加息和 LUNA/UST 崩溃在内的宏观不利因素促使投资者寻求另类资产的对冲，短暂地为以太坊等山寨币带来了优势。, Y4 ]$ K3 k G" U
: c1 f3 D" D2 O) ]! q& U3 k三年后，形势发生了逆转。 m% a0 o) u: I1 O( v
) D3 ?* h6 m) m" m- M这 altseason指标处于两年来的最低点，山寨币的月度损失达到两位数，而比特币的主导地位已飙升至四年来的最高点——与此同时，宏观压力继续考验牛市的信念。( k M5 J% V( i# x
. e6 v5 N, T3 ~. `( y8 g- l$ G发生了什么变化？机构资本.
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# J9 ^' E8 f, O0 v5 ~9 g, z7 x大型投资者如今主导着市场流动。而且，他们对BTC的偏好，将其作为宏观对冲工具和流动性锚，使其主导地位持续上升。
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4 l3 Y1 b& V! U4 \零售业也开始迎头赶上。随着比特币表现出更强的资本韧性，许多人选择将资金投入BTC，以长期稳定性，而不是追逐高贝塔山寨币以获得短期投机回报。
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2 B2 `( X& a6 T E& H6 N因此，只要市场保持波动且宏观风险依然存在，山寨币轮换就可能继续处于观望状态。
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1 K$ B) G7 F6 |4 w; Z山寨币第 2.0 季 – 建立在实用性而非炒作之上
4 F) z% q) Z4 X$ u; x我们可能正走向一个截然不同的山寨币季，它不再受“炒作”驱动，而是真正的实用性驱动。这一次，像以太坊这样强大的 Layer 1 链，索拉纳[SOL]，XRP 可能会引领潮流。7 w% O% E9 [, u& G9 X- {! s
& B6 z, J9 L, G6 [1 C" N这些网络不仅仅是与比特币竞争。它们正在构建新数字经济的基础，并引领风险加权资产 (RWA)、DePIN 和稳定币等趋势。4 y+ l: W# K4 ~$ G3 X
" b0 M& t; `- r0 OXRP新的稳定币，RLUSD就是一个很好的例子。它已经以 4.28 亿美元的市值跻身前 20 名，并且正在进军价值 2560 亿美元的庞大稳定币市场。' k. i( U" H7 x3 B9 g9 c
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尽管如此，要让真正的山寨币市场腾飞，市场需要一个像 NFT 或模因币是过去的事了。话虽如此，我们已经看到市场行为发生了明显的转变。* o6 A" P: E2 }9 H- Z, x
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在机构资金流动的推动下，比特币的主导地位并未减弱。然而，在表面之下，山寨币正转向现实世界的应用。而且，这种转变最终可能会让局面重新对他们有利。
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