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[虚拟币交流] 以太坊基本符合预期，弱于大饼，后面会持续（转）
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1#
同样的配方，又来了一次，隔夜美股虽然暴跌，但币圈却独立走强，背后的逻辑完全和此前硅谷银行暴雷一致，属于黑天鹅事件带来的走强，所以从分析的角度来说，这种走势是较难通过正常逻辑判断的。昨天美股第一共和银行单日下跌49%,创历史新低，客户存款暴降，拟变卖资产高达1000多亿美元，可以说再次遭遇了流动性挤兑危机，该银行处于岌岌可危的情况，随时可能因此无法兑付存款。同时，根据瑞银公布的季度报表来看，利润也是完全不及预期，这说明银行业整体的危机依然没有解除，同处避险资产的美元、黄金和比特币均出现不同程度的上涨，这便是市场走出独立行情的根本逻辑。
业绩公布还包括了像麦当劳、UPS等传统巨头，均不及预期，加之美国大型连锁商店3B数百家门店集体关店倒闭，对于未来美国的经济衰退预期再度增加，也致使美股集体走弱，这基本符合本周初狂人对数据的判断。后半周还有GDP和PCE数据，公布后很可能继续对市场承压，对于币圈来说，当前看美股的意义完全小于看美国银行业的意义，如果银行业继续暴雷，那么比特币将会继续走独立行情，如果没持续暴雷，同样还是从哪来回哪去，涨多少还得锤多少，因为宏观并不支持当前的持续走强。
所以，我们就盼望着美国银行业的危机不要解除，让更多的美元资金恐慌性配置其他资产，黄金和比特币均会受益，既然上一波拉升是这么涨上来的，那么来个第二波也不是不可能，但大家心里还是要有个度，这样的恐慌性拉升并不是比特币本身多牛逼，而是靠着别人犯错而拉升，这样的走势不会太久远，所以一旦年内超过35000,很可能就会接近年内的顶部，万不可预期太高。
单从走势来看，比特币这波反弹是有望持续的，隔夜这波拉盘逆转了所有筹码的抛售，也确立了支撑位的反弹，应该看作是真上涨，考虑逢回调做多为主。
以太坊基本符合预期，弱于大饼，后面会持续。
小币多数还是被吸血的状态，热点并不明显，此前各类板块龙头今天普遍出现反弹，但没有带动板块效应，预计持续性堪忧，还是以观望或投机为主。

5 n' ^% l( y$ n+ Z! U& h

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2#
对于这些币还是以观望心态比较好

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3#
连续发了好几个以太放的新闻了

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4#
这个也是可以去看看了解下啦。

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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
新闻方面也是要看一下了

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6#
如果我们的判断正确，炒起来才可能发财啊，敢不敢

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7#
确实是很，后续会持续的啦 ，感觉！

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8#
感觉也是可以投资一下的

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9#
回复这样的帖子，可吃力了，关键是不懂

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10#
以太坊比较稳定的币子的啊.

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11#
最近这种虚拟币比较难懂啊

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12#
后面是可以在看是不是持续的呀

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13#
就看今后它的发展方向到底如何。

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