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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第六节]
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第六节 一球/球半初盘
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6 C/ s& q/ s4 Y( w$ Y 初盘高水,豪门要防冷& P3 b: q0 p! G4 [
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* Y% S' j. ]; t2 W0 c 09-10赛季半程主队一球/球半盘成绩统计:
# G0 }$ P! E& } 英超主队; s6 @9 t4 `6 E. L* Y8 O
胜:11场 79%: _8 @. ~+ W0 j$ c
平:2场 14%
( |' C! ~8 Z6 ~2 G+ J2 d v) z 负:1场 7%/ V) { y* {0 Z8 W( Y1 O7 K2 |8 _
5 g) R" u% r4 [; ?5 l* z/ R8 W 通过新赛季半程统计发现,两个赛季中一球/球半盘下主队表现都较理想,仅出现1次输球,但是也发现,在09-10赛季较于上个赛季0输球记录本赛季防冷出0的可能不可忽略。先以09-10赛季的盘口水位统计为例,开始分析英超主队一球/球半盘路。0 a0 J" [/ l0 m" M/ H
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一、初盘阶段
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2 P% l" Q& a6 |. r8 S9 ` 具体到水位如下:
( E7 j" m& W! w- Z6 h+ C6 A 初盘阶段低水:英超主队3胜
* m! |6 F* ?& e, r 初盘阶段中水:英超主队3胜2平
5 \3 m3 t1 d7 e; v1 V, F8 O# k 初盘阶段高水:英超主队5胜1平& V) V! l4 o0 S' C
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分析:上赛季初盘阶段低水的赛次只有1场,结果是主队取胜。而在09-10赛季初盘阶段0.82-0.86上盘低水水位出现3次,主队盘路2赢1输半。分别是:
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# h% b0 `9 U$ ^# t. S 维拉3-0朴茨茅斯 0.86一球/球半1.00
5 c6 [ n" `, m0 o9 e 热刺2-1伯明翰 0.82一球/球半1.023 ?& [, U) J1 T7 i+ X/ v
热刺5-0伯恩利 0.86一球/球半1.00
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初盘阶段中水,主要发生在0.92中水至0.98中高水区间,英超主队3胜2平、主队盘路为2赢3输,成绩并不理想。其中打平的水位发生在初盘0.92/0.94、0.98/0.88,可以发现两类水位从半/一初盘开始对平局的支持次数较为频繁,需要引起关注。总体来看该初盘水位对足彩来说思路比较清晰,侧重点还是在于防冷平,足彩31格局较明朗。
+ ~4 q( d8 a& }+ O- ^- y/ l, C# ] 初盘阶段高水,英超主队5胜1负,只出现了1次客胜即曼联主场被维拉爆冷。水位表现即:曼联0-1维拉(1.04 一球/球半0.82)。其它赢球比赛中1.00/0.86水位出现2次,主队均都赢球赢盘。即:热刺2-0西汉姆、曼城4-1布莱克本。结合总体成绩分析,该盘口下足彩主胜做胆的价值价高。
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6 H- j/ k% t ]1 O0 K" X3 m: B$ Z6 d 二、临场阶段
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# r+ o! ^7 z+ f- A7 ]1 W3 Z" o" g# ` 具体到盘口如下: ~8 B) g# J3 |" N9 }5 `
临场阶段升盘: 英超主队1胜
; `' O' d: y: ^& e; e 临场阶段降盘: 英超主队4胜1平
5 V$ m9 i' y' t: {+ s 分析:临场阶段升盘的比赛目前只出现了1场,即热刺5-0大炒伯恩利的比赛。盘口水位即:
2 i9 F6 n; ?/ s# J' y & M1 y! V, v! p" [9 d
热刺VS伯恩利# N( G: U; O4 r0 i( o" X
初盘:0.86一球/球半1.00
' Y3 `' g8 y* s0 {+ @ 终盘:0.77球半1.09
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临场阶段出现降盘在一球/球半盘中出现次数较多。英超主队表现较为理想,取得了4胜1平的战绩,盘路为3赢1走1输。其中从中水降盘出现1次切主队被客队逼平,即爱华顿1-1狼队的比赛。在初盘水位0.98一球/球半0.88,临场水位0.80一球1.06区间内发生。而从高水降盘出现了4场主队取得全胜。从足彩细分角度分析,一球/球半出现降盘总体上是主队做胆格局,而对中水降盘的盘口类型应对冷平做出防范,足彩走31即可。
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三、球队表现
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在英超09-10赛季主让一球/球半初盘下,表现最好的球队当属曼城和热刺,在该盘口下都取得了胜利,这两支球队的一球/球半盘足彩做胆值得信任。在该盘口下豪门球队都有过输球或者被对手逼平的记录,足彩注意防冷平或爆大冷出0的可能。在该盘口下很少平局的球队是利物浦、曼联,它们都是非胜即败,足彩多选30为主。打成平局可能较大的是维拉和阿森纳,在主场被对手逼平的可能不小,足彩注意防平出1。
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: x7 Q: N! l4 {* |2 _ 四、投注要点
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( l. q* }/ Y9 f, J2 U 要点1:初盘低水,主胜的保证
/ R8 i% W0 J* r" i, K 要点2:初盘中水,重点防平# l2 T0 T/ `+ i7 W( _, M# _
要点3:初盘高水,主胜可期,但要注意豪门在此盘下被爆冷可能- r' {! g' v5 p; h! e9 [& p+ Y
要点4:中水临场降盘,足彩双选31# Z A& Q/ s0 N& V% P
要点5:红魔、红军此盘下打平概率较低
' }8 P. N9 d7 o Q2 h1 f8 i 要点6:曼城、热刺赢盘多,足彩做胆可信任4 x5 A$ T, ?/ O* E
要点7:阿森纳、维拉的平局不可忽视7 m! c1 }& R! E+ v+ @$ H' A
0 ~9 ~9 M) F% ^( D0 N& g& A7 Z
对英超一球/球半初盘临场降盘的一些看法' C/ F' q% x( n: D1 w
对于多数玩家来说,一球/球半降盘是比较难琢磨的盘口。如变换角度理解,深盘降盘一方5 ]: N( R8 v ]# {' W9 g# O
面是打击玩家对上盘信心而阻击盘口,另一方面则是庄家吸引筹码的表现。但是通过英超本赛季的几场此类盘路的结果,可以看发现出现降盘的上盘球队多数都能赢球赢盘。关于此类盘路在前面章节有过具体讲述,这里只拿个别实例简单说明。曼城2-0斯托克城,就是主队初盘让一球/球半1.06临场向一球0.84低水降盘的案例,简单解析就是曼城主场三连胜、斯托克主客场均都萎靡,曼城毫无降盘的任何支持题材,在此只能解释为本盘属于降低上盘赔付的反诱手法。(具体盘路分析在本书第二部分方法篇中有详述)综合一球/球半临场降盘的总体表现,足彩将31作为主流较为稳健。# s7 l. Q9 [ m, }; n
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