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[lastpost] => 2788341 比特币价格预测：BTC 守住 92,000 美元，美联储决议临近，价格波动在所难免。（转） 1765368948 22301
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币价格预测：BTC 守住 92,000 美元，美联储决议临近，价格波动在所难免。（转）
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比特币 (BTC) 价格进入关键的一周，交易员们正密切关注美联储的货币政策决定。由于 BTC 价格徘徊在关键阻力位附近，周三的联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 会议成为本周最重要的市场事件。美联储的前瞻性指引和通胀状况都可能影响市场走势。前景利率走势可能会决定市场波动，因此，这一消息将成为市值最大的加密货币下一步走势的决定性催化剂。- G3 F/ R' |' X* c" J& }
" i4 @, Y7 J! T5 c随着美联储决议临近，比特币价格或将出现波动。& j9 e9 j6 N! G) J0 O' d- p
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比特币本周开局良好，延续了周末的上涨势头，小幅走高，截至周三发稿时，价格维持在 92,000 美元上方。加密货币由于美国经济可能出现加剧的波动，美国经济可能会经历更大的波动。美联储美联储预计将于今日晚些时候宣布货币政策决定，市场普遍预期其将降息。利率尽管通胀居高不下，但仍上涨了 25 个基点。
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K33 Research 分析师表示：“周三的 FOMC 会议是本周已知最关键的可能影响市场走势的事件。”
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* h W8 _, s6 v! m! B分析师指出，市场目前预期降息，降息25个基点的概率为89.4%。尽管市场普遍预期利率会下降，但目前的概率反映了今年以来FOMC会议前市场确定性最低的水平。这种不确定性源于……美联储美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在 10 月份的会议上对央行下一步措施含糊其辞，这给周三的交易时段留下了很大的波动空间。
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下图显示BTC/USD波动率呈上升趋势。比特币目前交易震荡，每日价格波动幅度较大，这表明市场流动性不足，买卖双方相对不活跃。此外，上周7日波动率升至3.4%，为10月14日以来的最高水平。
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K33 Research 的报告进一步指出，过去七天芝加哥商品交易所 (CME) 最显著的现象是市场交投清淡。比特币期货年化溢价在一周内保持平稳，期限结构略有扩张。未平仓合约 (OI) 的日波动极小，过去五个交易日的波动范围在 121,000 至 122,000 BTC 之间。这是 CME 比特币期货有史以来第八低的未平仓合约波动率。历史上，类似的低未平仓合约水平往往出现在市场出现重大波动之前。
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( v& [/ V& K; J! w# [1 B/ Q“我们认为目前的停滞状态是动能疲软和缺乏明确的短期信号造成的。任何打破这种平衡的迹象，特别是如果伴随着芝加哥商品交易所（CME）参与度的上升，都将有助于更清晰地判断市场的下一步走向，”这位分析师写道。
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