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[虚拟币交流]
比特币反弹逼近 92,000 美元——市场反应的原因如下（转）
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比特币价格再次攀升，而这波市场上涨与美国货币政策预期的转变不谋而合。
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7 I5 Z+ Z8 q3 p( l3 E1 d要点总结：
' F# f8 _( P. T( v8 S由于交易员预期在凯文·哈塞特可能出任美联储主席的情况下，美联储的立场会更加鸽派，比特币价格反弹至 91,000 美元以上。3 H8 {% ?2 |+ w$ N' H
链上6 b: x8 O9 c5 ~3 y# W
在区块链上记录和验证的交易。
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1 B2 ?6 y$ g: {$ @. H% S4 L链上信号有所改善，Puell 倍数从深度累积水平上升。
+ ]& p1 }( K m& c( u' v0 d5 s技术指标偏向看涨，但 93000 美元和 96500 美元仍然是下一个关键阻力位。
$ e. C6 S7 c' h7 X% `$ u5 d本周早些时候发生滑倒后，比特币 受交易量上升以及衍生品和链上分析市场情绪改善的支撑，该股在过去 24 小时内反弹至 91,000 美元区域，涨幅达 4%。
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9 z5 }2 n/ E8 |: P美联储主席预期转变——比特币做出反应
" X* s+ ^+ i) @' r# P推动今天这一举动的关键因素似乎是人们越来越相信凯文·哈塞特现在是……领先候选人在唐纳德·特朗普总统的领导下，哈塞特有望成为下一任美联储主席。预测市场显示，哈塞特遥遥领先于其他竞争者，而且他的政策立场被认为明显更为鸽派——倾向于更大幅度的降息，并可能推出新的量化宽松政策（QE）。
9 X% x: a5 `! o3 @ H! a8 F+ i7 [ H- t% C" c5 ^
当市场对未来的货币政策走向有了更清晰的预期时，风险资产往往会提前反映出这种转变。比特币交易员押注哈塞特领导下的美联储将倾向于宽松的金融环境，而历史上这种环境对加密货币通常是有利的。
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- n1 c/ {: K2 y5 a% {链上指标变得具有建设性9 N+ q: a5 s) V0 j
普埃尔倍数（Puell Multiple）是一个备受关注的模型，历史上它通常预示着比特币周期触底，当该指标跌破 0.50 时，比特币价格就会触底反弹。目前，该指标已升至 0.67。虽然这一数值仍处于下行积累区间，但分析师指出，当该指标从低位回升时，比特币通常会开始恢复上涨动能。
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8 w6 B9 I8 n# ?: P9 H7 ]$ ^- y普埃尔倍数已对比特币进行了标记$BTC自 2015 年以来，当价格跌破 0.50 时，周期便触底。
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现在是0.67。pic.twitter.com/6Z0ednSaRf" L' W$ u* m! l6 t
9 e: j2 Q4 @2 |— Ali (@ali_charts)2025年11月26日
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. X1 F, s2 ^ B( a. S市场观察人士强调，以往的周期中，当矿业公司收入趋于稳定且普埃尔倍数脱离极低水平时，都会出现大幅上涨——这种模式现在开始重演。
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衍生品在最近的价格波动中发挥了作用。过去一天，价值超过 1.32 亿美元的比特币头寸……清算其中空头占了绝大部分（约1.14亿美元）。资金重置和强制清算进一步推动了比特币在上周大幅抛售后的反弹。
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技术图表显示动能正在增强。0 M7 R% S# k" a/ Q8 A7 g
比特币4小时图显示结构正在走强，RSI
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相对强弱指数
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和 RSI正在恢复到65-70分的水平MACD
6 }' W2 Q( V! n* H9 s$ X& k移动平均收敛/发散
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“>MACD向上突破零轴，表明动能正在增强。0 N/ J4 D$ s$ c+ m; c8 Q0 C8 A: ?
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