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1 W) |& w, P `$ |0 [6 t- Y, O1 { 中信证券(26.430, 0.45, 1.73%)发布研报称,加密货币具有较好的隐私性和抗通胀性,自诞生以来成长迅速,并且正在逐步正规资产化。随着加密货币的刚需扩大,& J* ?) B0 y! W" @3 \% V
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形成类似黄金的刚需托底,投机定价的格局。但短期来看由于货币化不足和边际定价者风险偏好高,加密货币反而投机性更强。中长期内,预计加密货币和黄金都将受益于; V0 T) ^) }4 l3 w, e
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逆全球化、去美元化带来的货币化。“未来黄金”不必然包含比特币,但大概率有加密货币。短期内加密货币有望受益于特朗普任期内可能的监管放松,但需等待贸易、外交政
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策的确定性。
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中信证券主要观点如下:
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+ L6 _) s+ A' x6 M3 e 加密货币是一种基于区块链技术的数字货币,具有较好的隐私性、抗通胀性。
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8 r" w) [) @8 t! i5 N( `4 F4 o 自其诞生以来,市场成长迅速,例如比特币呈指数型增长。
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近期加密货币表现不佳,并未体现出避险属性。* r/ Y' D' l2 f& d3 ^, X
* N2 w. C8 \" Q' @ 2024年比特币主要有一季度和四季度两波集中上涨,分别是因为ETF发行、比特币减半、亚洲投资者热情高;以及特朗普交易影响。但2025年以来比特币及其他加密货币表现
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/ v! S3 b. j' `+ i不佳,与黄金走势背离,并未体现出避险属性。
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: {4 ~- Y# @ ], x3 B# F, R4 W! y 加密货币市场与黄金愈发相似。- {, r5 ^& f7 \0 l
6 B1 k3 }. \; v 从规模来看,加密货币市场仍明显小于黄金市场,增长空间巨大。从持有结构来看,两者都是集中度较高,且加密货币市场持有结构更加不透明,均有利于价格的长期上行。8 m' x/ E/ F0 ~' d' ?
- l6 H2 a0 Z- l( z, C9 W/ U 加密货币开始出现刚性需求,形成与黄金类似的刚需托底,投机定价的格局。
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由于加密货币在跨境支付、抗通胀信用方面具有优势,形成了快速增长的刚性需求。加密货币正在快速的“正规化”、“黄金化”,与黄金一样形成了刚需,以确保其难以出现泡沫8 w5 B8 F, b+ R T
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破灭、大量投机交易完成定价的格局。4 q8 b1 j9 v: i; |+ ^, V2 ~: S
% y! x( y- Y0 |9 I6 b7 ^1 M8 v/ V2 B 短期内,加密货币的货币及避险属性仍不及黄金,因此表现背离。; S; x# L# \0 X' O Q2 I
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我们认为根本的原因是1)社会认知、税收制度中加密货币的货币化程度不及黄金。2)由于加密货币高成长性,边际定价者的风险偏好高。短期内,加密货币避险属性和投机属性
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- g4 a. P, w1 J" \" m# s9 E共存,后者更占上风。长期来看这些因素望将淡化。/ S$ H u/ @# o p# D% ?! k4 t
& ?" V# }* Q/ T/ b3 P 长期来看,加密货币料仍然有极大的增长空间,最根本的逻辑是逆全球化及去美元化,驱动黄金、加密货币的货币化。
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2008年以来逆全球化和去美元化进程持续,预计加密货币坚实的市场需求仍将持续扩大。我们判断在长时间维度上,黄金和加密货币的货币属性,都会是“未来黄金”。由于技术劣
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0 d0 f% x$ A! U$ T6 M+ m势,比特币不必然是未来的黄金,但“未来黄金”大概率包含加密货币。尽管如此,我们认为技术优势战胜信念优势需要很长时间,比特币在加密货币中的独有地位仍将维持很久。
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- t8 @( J0 B+ `* G 展望未来四年,比特币及其他加密货币在特朗普的支持下仍然可能表现亮眼,但短期转好需要特朗普给出确定性信号。
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本届特朗普ZF与硅谷的紧密联系让加密货币有望受益于潜在的监管放松。但短期内贸易政策不确定性等因素压制了风险偏好与流动性宽松。转涨或需等待特朗普给出外交和贸易政0 n* y% E3 T5 A% |& m4 U
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策确定性。未来若特朗普ZF对俄政策转向也可能带来风险。! q. O. j4 E/ v+ q8 }! j$ R# w( I
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风险因素:
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特朗普ZF政策超预期;美国联邦债务问题超预期;美联储货币政策宽松不及预期;地缘ZZ风险。! [; {8 o! P; _: h
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