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国盛证券今日发文分析称，参考黄金ETF推出对金价的推动，
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比特币现货ETF值得期待。黄金ETF的推出对金价产生积极推动，
& f: y' d6 ?2 r- j1 z7 h$ h7 G/ y7 j$ T8 R* V H6 {9 j1 v
这对比特币现货ETF有着积极的启示。需要注意的是，世界对黄
$ p# m( D2 v1 c5 z* O/ r' h2 ?- H1 h" U9 F$ `) c7 c
金的认可并非由现货ETF而产生，而若比特币现货ETF获批，则意0 Z3 s: Q/ Q f0 B4 T- T
* t: `6 D& O$ u9 Z' b味着庞大的传统财富世界对比特币、甚至Web3.0世界的认可，将6 K' f; q% C( q+ H0 j
2 X. ]) e. g, g1 F ~
进一步加速两者的融合。这是一个从0到1的过程，边际变化远超1 ^6 o: y4 E8 k% P7 a
6 m' b# \2 J% f4 h/ f$ _; v' K) B! D( P
是黄金ETF获批。
7 {8 C8 |/ h8 H# w6 N$ W( p# L. A! X* y
* j( [& q4 X, d0 M" C当然，另一层面不同的是，比特币总数固定在2100万枚，而黄金
7 p# G0 I9 }- ~ U1 A
3 Z0 \0 S4 a8 G# J2 X仍然有不断的新增产出。比特币现货ETF在美获批，有望带来增量
& d" [+ D+ `' U7 T8 J$ a) e7 X1 b% U$ N ~* n
资金。Galaxy Digital测算得到的结论是：比特币在现货ETF获批的
0 s, i( u% h/ \4 _* u" R8 Z
9 }1 ?8 V" L% v$ o& S第一年内预计上涨74%（以2023年9月30日比特币价格26920美元
& ]& K0 Q# Z! K) G0 |4 m: J9 m7 I/ }
为起点）；在较长时间内，投资比特币产品的潜在资金规模为1250亿
( \) m; @! c r! h- e$ ]; ]4 ?4 _! o! r: q" s) i1 R1 p1 d2 }) l# ^8 a! P
美元至4500亿美元之间。% Q6 Q# z& b3 r t$ U
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$ G( ~1 F0 R! |* f7 d8 m
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