Array
(
[fid] => 6866
[description] =>
[password] =>
[icon] => c6/common_6866_icon.png
[redirect] =>
[attachextensions] =>
[creditspolicy] => Array
(
[post] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 20
[extcredits1] => -30000000000
[extcredits2] => -10000
[extcredits3] => -1000000
[extcredits4] => -10000
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits5] => -10000
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 1
[fid] => 6866
[rulename] => 发表主题
[action] => post
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6951,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6765,6873,555,6895,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6977,6975,6903,6976,6799,6974,6824,1121,6815,6948,6879,6845,6891,6979,6866
)
[reply] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 120
[extcredits1] => -100000000000000000
[extcredits2] => -100000
[extcredits3] => -100000
[extcredits4] => -10000
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits5] => -100000
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 2
[fid] => 6866
[rulename] => 发表回复
[action] => reply
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6951,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6765,6873,555,6895,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6977,6975,6903,6976,6799,6974,6824,1121,6815,6948,6879,6845,6891,6979,6866
)
)
[formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";}
[moderators] =>
[rules] =>
[threadtypes] => Array
(
[required] =>
[listable] =>
[prefix] =>
[types] => Array
(
[12] => 网球
[13] => 棒球
[14] => 高尔夫球
[15] => 拳击
[16] => F1赛事
[1562] => 2020双旦嘉年华
)
[icons] => Array
(
[12] =>
[13] =>
[14] =>
[15] =>
[16] =>
[1562] =>
)
[moderators] => Array
(
[12] =>
[13] =>
[14] =>
[15] =>
[16] =>
[1562] =>
)
)
[threadsorts] => Array
(
)
[viewperm] =>
[postperm] =>
[replyperm] =>
[getattachperm] =>
[postattachperm] =>
[postimageperm] =>
[spviewperm] =>
[seotitle] =>
[keywords] =>
[seodescription] =>
[supe_pushsetting] =>
[modrecommend] => Array
(
[open] => 0
[num] => 10
[imagenum] => 0
[imagewidth] => 300
[imageheight] => 250
[maxlength] => 0
[cachelife] => 0
[dateline] => 0
)
[threadplugin] => Array
(
)
[replybg] =>
[extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";}
[jointype] => 0
[gviewperm] => 0
[membernum] => 0
[dateline] => 0
[lastupdate] => 0
[activity] => 0
[founderuid] => 0
[foundername] =>
[banner] =>
[groupnum] => 0
[commentitem] =>
[relatedgroup] =>
[picstyle] => 0
[widthauto] => 0
[noantitheft] => 0
[noforumhidewater] => 0
[noforumrecommend] => 0
[livetid] => 0
[price] => 0
[fup] => 6770
[type] => forum
[name] => 怀旧版块
[status] => 0
[displayorder] => 0
[styleid] => 0
[threads] => 82288
[posts] => 536551
[todayposts] => 0
[yesterdayposts] => 0
[rank] => 150
[oldrank] => 151
[lastpost] => 2344055 【天策2020双旦嘉年华】，万元大金矿，联合【众鑫娱乐】寻找挖金手（开奖帖） 1610638563 女人爱足球
[domain] =>
[allowsmilies] => 0
[allowhtml] => 0
[allowbbcode] => 0
[allowimgcode] => 0
[allowmediacode] => 0
[allowanonymous] => 0
[allowpostspecial] => 0
[allowspecialonly] => 0
[allowappend] => 0
[alloweditrules] => 0
[allowfeed] => 0
[allowside] => 0
[recyclebin] => 0
[modnewposts] => 2
[jammer] => 1
[disablewatermark] => 0
[inheritedmod] => 0
[autoclose] => 0
[forumcolumns] => 0
[catforumcolumns] => 0
[threadcaches] => 0
[alloweditpost] => 0
[simple] => 81
[modworks] => 0
[allowglobalstick] => 0
[level] => 0
[commoncredits] => 0
[archive] => 0
[recommend] => 0
[favtimes] => 2
[sharetimes] => 0
[disablethumb] => 0
[disablecollect] => 0
[ismoderator] => 0
[threadtableid] => 0
[allowreply] =>
[allowpost] =>
[allowpostattach] =>
)
|
解析1.76亿中奖概率:428万分之1而非4.4亿分之1
[复制链接]
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 3412 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
1.76亿！6月27日晚，体彩诞生首个亿元巨奖。一夜之间，重庆彩民中得1.76亿元巨奖的消息引起了大家的热烈讨论，不少人甚至开始计算1.76亿元巨奖的中奖概率，有说是2142万分之一的，有说是4.4亿分之一的，也有说是428万分之一的，今天我们就来谈一下中奖概率的问题。
8 n7 l# d6 v/ g4 ~9 G+ r |[b]如何计算一等奖中奖概率？[/b]$ G) f0 m- ]+ u: P
每期摇出的奖号是一组数字，每个数字的出现是有一定的概率的，那么一等奖的中奖概率该如何计算呢？1 y3 u7 u# @$ ?" ~$ C! o
以超级大乐透为例，购买者从01—35共35个号码中选取5个号码为 前区号码，并从01-12共12个号码中选取2个号码为后区号码组合为一注彩票进行的基本投注，则一等奖中奖概率为：0 B7 b4 s/ }& X; K6 q' z4 o
前区号码组合总数C(35,5)=324632
. e* E/ U7 b# }" x1 O9 t/ w后区号码组合总数C(12,2)=665 Z2 e. Y0 s. r+ e" K; s5 d7 p
一等奖中奖概率=1/(324632×66)=1/214257124 U& g# e6 x, F* Q- f
简单来说，假设某彩民采用包号的方法，对所有前、后区号码组合进行投注，即投注了21425712种不同的号码组合，那肯定有且只有1种组合与当期开奖号码完全相同，也就是说他100%可以中得一等奖；如果彩民仅投注一种号码组合，则一等奖中奖概率为1/21425712。如果投注两种不同的号码组合，那么一等奖的中奖概率自然就增加一倍，以此类推。+ O, [' d$ B v9 g K
[b]4.4亿分之一的说法是否正确？[/b], a$ J; B/ ?# H z) a5 i
重庆02818投注站中得的1.76亿元分别来自两张彩票：一张5注单式票并进行了追加和20倍倍投、一张7+2复式追加票，因为尚不能确定这两张票肯定为一人中得，我们这里仅分析20倍投的单式票。从票面信息来看，单式票上的其中1注号码与当期奖号完全相同，因为进行了20倍倍投，所以是中得了20注一等奖，另外1注则来自该复式票。需要说明的是，中奖概率只与前、后区号码组合的数目有关，20倍倍投只是提高了中奖后的奖金，但与所选号码的中奖概率没有任何的关系。即使是倍投99倍，但中得一等奖的难度并不会随之提高为原先的99倍，所以4.4亿分之一，即1/(21425712×21)的说法是不对的。% I7 H- ?0 S$ ^3 g( [5 [
[b]428万分之一如何得来？[/b]1 J& I9 x, V, w2 J
在这张单式票中，该彩民共选了5注不同的号码，因此5注号码的总中奖概率=5×1/21425712，即该张彩票的中奖概率为428万分之一。 t. ^5 x8 ^6 s5 D( J
[b]中奖概率低仍受热捧 原因何在？[/b]
' O6 ^& Q/ h5 m# P* e. V2 D+ C8 v1 T仅从中奖概率来看，中得一等奖的机会是很小的，但是超级大乐透仍然受到了很多彩民的热捧，因为这种全国联网大盘玩法有巨额奖池的保障，一等奖奖金十分可观，这从全国动辄中出的千万元以上大奖可见一斑。: Y: L1 M# H; z: S5 w4 r! f) c
[b]常见误区：超级大乐透不易中[/b]
3 ^5 y Z |( H: P* q) x$ w4 @不少彩民反映超级大乐透不易中，其实这是一个认识上的误区，同样我们从中奖概率的角度来进行分析，仅以八等奖为例。 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
