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“四二法则”是一种估算概率的方法,让你能快速计算你想要的牌出现的概率。6 E# g1 U: M6 \1 g" c& A/ J: o c
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比如:桌子上的牌是A-6-7-Q,而你的手牌是8-9。你想要再来一张5或者10来凑成顺子,但你只剩最后一轮机会。
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% K" }- P _- r9 ]/ ~) `7 @严格来计算德扑概率应该这样:7 G0 k! c U, E, \/ {# o! M" D4 g
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一副牌52张,去掉翻牌3张,转牌1张,手牌2张,剩下52-3-2-1=46张;2 w- C, i5 E+ I3 H! P4 R. Q0 T
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你想要的牌是4张5和4张10,共4+4=8张。
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5 [* F! o' W ^# b: ?那么此时,你在河牌中顺子的概率为:8/46=0.1739,即17%。( ]2 ^# }8 a5 R% W1 j1 o
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你可能觉得这样计算会比较麻烦,于是就有了四二法则,即:你想要的牌有4+4=8张,' x1 U+ j' @" y8 ~
4 k7 y' E3 f+ X9 c4 _只剩最后一轮机会,所以让8*2=16,即你有约16%的机会中顺子,与上述17%基本近似。
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# k2 u# f/ M) n; a% D这是四二法则中的“二”。
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当然,如果你还有两轮机会的话,即河牌圈与转牌圈,情况是这样的。
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比如桌子上翻牌为A-6-7,你的手牌依旧是8,9。
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不一样的是,你有两轮机会来等5或者10,共8张想要的牌4 {, \- O3 D; d V
4 y$ b6 I5 p; H0 ^3 _2 ^那么两轮内你中顺子的概率为:
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1-(47-8)/47*(46-8)/46=0.3145,即约为31%。% r) x" d# \! P- S
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那么利用四二法则,8*4=32,即你约有32%的机会中顺子,是不是跟理论值也很接近。
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这就是四二法则中的“四”。+ o$ b1 f8 q) Q/ ~; q; `2 [
& m# a8 ^! {+ W5 z总之就是,先想好自己想要的牌的张数,然后,还有两轮机会就乘4,还有一轮机会就乘2,得到的就是你想要的牌接下来会出现的概率。接着,根据真人德扑圈的游戏玩家以及战况来决定接下来该怎么办。利用好四二法则,可以帮你快速估算概率。
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