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“四二法则”是一种估算概率的方法,让你能快速计算你想要的牌出现的概率。
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9 u6 K1 y& G/ I s比如:桌子上的牌是A-6-7-Q,而你的手牌是8-9。你想要再来一张5或者10来凑成顺子,但你只剩最后一轮机会。
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严格来计算德扑概率应该这样:
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一副牌52张,去掉翻牌3张,转牌1张,手牌2张,剩下52-3-2-1=46张;
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6 g* i: A& Z( [! f* R6 w" z你想要的牌是4张5和4张10,共4+4=8张。
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那么此时,你在河牌中顺子的概率为:8/46=0.1739,即17%。
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$ I+ s! L% X2 D% {' A* ~你可能觉得这样计算会比较麻烦,于是就有了四二法则,即:你想要的牌有4+4=8张,
6 h. s+ P' Z! h( I% x: L$ @
! C1 P7 |. x4 M( H" \只剩最后一轮机会,所以让8*2=16,即你有约16%的机会中顺子,与上述17%基本近似。; d& C, P2 h+ S2 J
( _' ^- G u* G2 a: c, ~: J, ^这是四二法则中的“二”。
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, y) b; e+ ~' l4 k7 R6 G4 G+ T' k当然,如果你还有两轮机会的话,即河牌圈与转牌圈,情况是这样的。- R) U* ^/ G8 u& ?
9 `1 c; {6 t) M0 @+ [% {3 H$ J0 s
比如桌子上翻牌为A-6-7,你的手牌依旧是8,9。
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& I$ o) R5 F+ P不一样的是,你有两轮机会来等5或者10,共8张想要的牌
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4 X T# N; h- T' w- I: M9 V! H" m那么两轮内你中顺子的概率为:
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1-(47-8)/47*(46-8)/46=0.3145,即约为31%。- G% y: D: y/ b7 \+ r+ o) k% I
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那么利用四二法则,8*4=32,即你约有32%的机会中顺子,是不是跟理论值也很接近。
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这就是四二法则中的“四”。2 Y. {; G3 i1 `' S$ s( h
! }2 u$ N) W! f# C6 t总之就是,先想好自己想要的牌的张数,然后,还有两轮机会就乘4,还有一轮机会就乘2,得到的就是你想要的牌接下来会出现的概率。接着,根据真人德扑圈的游戏玩家以及战况来决定接下来该怎么办。利用好四二法则,可以帮你快速估算概率。* [4 F# @$ M' S, H7 e7 _
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