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“四二法则”是一种估算概率的方法,让你能快速计算你想要的牌出现的概率。
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比如:桌子上的牌是A-6-7-Q,而你的手牌是8-9。你想要再来一张5或者10来凑成顺子,但你只剩最后一轮机会。
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! Y+ _. I, G8 H3 M# ~4 E1 m2 w/ h严格来计算德扑概率应该这样:$ g( U" M9 f1 `+ W1 n$ t
* v4 m1 I8 P, F% b2 g7 [; B一副牌52张,去掉翻牌3张,转牌1张,手牌2张,剩下52-3-2-1=46张;( I# s- {% t2 Y" K6 R
9 `/ u' `3 J- b0 R& H7 D你想要的牌是4张5和4张10,共4+4=8张。
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那么此时,你在河牌中顺子的概率为:8/46=0.1739,即17%。
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2 k' U- }" N7 v0 M. K# d你可能觉得这样计算会比较麻烦,于是就有了四二法则,即:你想要的牌有4+4=8张,3 y) K- I( E/ ]
$ A5 T3 R @/ Q$ S只剩最后一轮机会,所以让8*2=16,即你有约16%的机会中顺子,与上述17%基本近似。6 p+ y# T2 a0 |! X# Z7 u
; P c2 k7 ?: [2 \7 D- R这是四二法则中的“二”。; R9 s8 [; }# N
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当然,如果你还有两轮机会的话,即河牌圈与转牌圈,情况是这样的。% b% H _, [, Z! x6 v2 O/ n: J' y
. B+ n' ^. I! M; M9 I: S0 m( A比如桌子上翻牌为A-6-7,你的手牌依旧是8,9。1 `( d; o9 g, P% O$ i
( A. e! Q4 ^5 {& G" Z O* D3 ?不一样的是,你有两轮机会来等5或者10,共8张想要的牌
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7 O* m* r& y1 k7 [; \% p那么两轮内你中顺子的概率为:
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1-(47-8)/47*(46-8)/46=0.3145,即约为31%。
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那么利用四二法则,8*4=32,即你约有32%的机会中顺子,是不是跟理论值也很接近。4 h$ ^7 a: L& B- t
- Q5 O4 V( k; G9 [2 e1 o这就是四二法则中的“四”。
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7 ~! p" o& D3 o" g# G/ p, v总之就是,先想好自己想要的牌的张数,然后,还有两轮机会就乘4,还有一轮机会就乘2,得到的就是你想要的牌接下来会出现的概率。接着,根据真人德扑圈的游戏玩家以及战况来决定接下来该怎么办。利用好四二法则,可以帮你快速估算概率。
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