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[虚拟币交流]
山寨币市值蒸发 3840 亿美元：如果没有比特币轮动，该行业能否复苏？（转）
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山寨币市场在 10 月 7 日遭受了最严重的打击，导致总市值在图表上急剧下降。8 X3 b: Y4 t& D8 S
/ l0 \" Y- z* Q9 h- [根据 TradingView 上的山寨币市值图表（不包括稳定币），比特币 [BTC]， 和以太坊 [ETH]从峰值到 11 月 21 日，市场总共损失了 3840 亿美元。
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上一次出现大量资金外流是在 2024 年 12 月至 2025 年 4 月期间，持续了四个月，期间市场下跌了 53%。
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9 ?% E1 F, v9 C当前的经济衰退是否会遵循同样的规律尚不清楚，但 AMBCrypto 分析了可能决定潜在逆转的因素。
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4 m$ Z) U5 R1 d( C: R山寨币季节性指数
1 l% K# ~) m0 W9 _* @资本流入市场一直是决定哪些资产或行业大幅上涨的关键因素之一。
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此前，这种趋势曾支撑了隐私代币持续数周的看涨前景。类似的模式也可能适用于其他加密货币以及比特币整体。: Z/ E9 F# X9 e! Z* N/ V0 C
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山寨币季节性指数能够反映当前市场的资金轮动情况。目前，该指数显示大部分资金仍然集中在比特币上。$ [+ s4 u) D, ?4 l0 o) O2 d
: r: N* w7 p* a3 ]+ n; u当资金重新流入山寨币，指数从 75 点及以上进入图表的上部区域时，山寨币可能会开始上涨。% w/ U6 T# Q' f f
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根据 CoinMarketCap 的数据，上一次确认的山寨币行情发生在 2024 年 12 月 4 日，当时该指数攀升至 87。
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9 n! N2 [9 P/ T6 d, Z然而，下一步的重大举措仍不确定，Alphractal 数据显示，大量山寨币的价格仍维持在 40-50 的范围内，表明市场将继续保持中性。1 K) W2 I# s* l
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链上活动仍然至关重要. d5 k* q- v! K% h4 X- V- H
虽然链下资金流动很重要，但了解去中心化应用程序的链上活动仍然至关重要。
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5 p" U& n0 l; d. ^/ B. i" t这是通过总锁定价值 (TVL) 来衡量的，它反映了市场中各个协议之间流通的流动性总量。! S8 R1 u/ @4 [: Z
( [2 J5 d9 G- l7 S( _/ lTVL 的增加表明投资者正在将更多资产锁定到协议中，从而增强了市场信心，支持了看涨前景，并表明了更长期的承诺。6 I7 a: O& z$ H+ y9 ^! F
2 k8 v1 q( r4 m/ e; g ^/ M目前，整体市场已出现小幅反弹，TVL 达到 1190.9 亿美元。
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7 x7 h9 ]3 q* t7 m% v, \7 @! ?此外，多个区块链上稳定币供应量的逐步增加表明，许多投资者仍然持观望态度，继续偏爱稳定币而不是山寨币。; t2 J3 U% a/ ?6 t m8 f* p* G
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比特币与山寨币的去相关性+ Q; R D: Z$ x3 U
比特币与山寨币之间的相关性是评估山寨币反弹可能性的重要指标。
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当比特币和山寨币的走势相似时，这表明资金正在同时流入或流出这两个领域。$ U* A9 o1 G. `0 e* X- \3 b: a( y
& l. S5 Y h$ h* ^3 O对于持续的加密货币上涨行情而言，随着市场趋势的上升，一定程度的去相关性往往是必要的。
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这意味着当山寨币价格上涨时，比特币的上涨速度要么放缓，要么走势相反。这种现象证实了投资者关注点正在转向山寨币。
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从图表上可以清楚地看出，在 8 月 25 日至 10 月 10 日期间，山寨币（绿色标记）的资金流入量比比特币（蓝色标记）更为强劲。
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. ?4 G/ s h8 v* J" j; T0 u最后想说的话# N5 K& p# |1 u+ X; v# }
目前，山寨币已进入中性阶段，大多数山寨币的相对强弱指数 (RSI) 均在 40-50 的范围内。
! Z: W2 H$ I( t经历了动荡的十月份之后，山寨币市场遭受了最严重的打击之一。 ]- A8 n) e- w. o7 I- O' o
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